News and my thoughts from the past week (17Nov25)
QUANTUM BEVERAGE $QUBT RISES 8% AFTER REPORTING $300K OF REVENUE AND $10M OPERATING LOSS - Consensus Media
Per data from FeedingAmerica, the average monthly price of groceries in the U.S. for a family of four has gone up to $1,030 - DataArbor
Peter Thiel has said: Capitalism isn’t working for young people.
Oracle’s risk of default is surging
Serious credit card delinquencies (unpaid balances for at least 90 days) are at their highest level in 14 years, per Bloomberg.
Hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s are at the highest point they have recorded, per Bank of America
KC Fed President Schmid, the most hawkish FOMC voter, says that rate cuts could push inflation higher while not doing much to help the labor market. - Liz Thomas
“…Morgan Stanley analysts in July estimated that of the roughly $3 trillion that is expected in global data-centre capital expenditures through 2028, only about half of that could be funded by projected cash flows. That would leave a roughly $1.5 trillion financing gap…” - WSJ
The White House says President Trump is signing an Executive Order that will reduce tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas. The move is aimed at lowering costs on groceries amid persistent food inflation. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
The most underrated part of this whole story is not the $9.2M in puts, it is the paperwork. Michael Burry didn’t just short PLTR, he shorted the incentive to cave. By deregistering Scion and moving risk to family capital, he turned off redemptions, CNBC, 13F tourists and LP politics. In 2008, the trade was right but the structure nearly broke him. In 2025, the trade is still brutal, but the structure is anti-fragile: no clients to placate, no quarterly confession, no public mark-to-market. That is not doom-scrolling bearishness. That is a man who redesigned the game so only two players remain: his capital and the math. - X user Shanaka Anslem Perera
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a lot of assets look like they’re entering bubble territory. Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey cited an AI equity bubble as the top global tail risk for the first time in its history. Cash levels fell to 3.8%, near BofA’s sell threshold. Readings below 4% have historically marked peak risk appetite late in the market cycle. - X user Hedgie
In 2010, the median age of all US homebuyers was 39 years old. Today, it is 59. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Hedge Funds are dumping consumer services stocks (hotels, restaurants) at the fastest pace in AT LEAST 5 years - Barchart
Fannie Mae set to drop its 620 credit score minimum.
“About a month ago, BlackRock Inc. deemed the private debt it had extended to Renovo Home Partners, a struggling home improvement company, to be worth 100 cents on the dollar. As of last week, the firm had a new assessment: zero. The drastic revision comes as Dallas-based Renovo — a roll-up of regional kitchen and bathroom remodeling businesses created by private equity firm Audax Group in 2022 — abruptly filed for bankruptcy last week, indicating it plans to shut down. BlackRock held the majority of Renovo’s roughly $150 million of private debt, while Apollo Global Management Inc.’s MidCap Financial and Oaktree Capital Management held smaller chunks, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing a private transaction…” - Bloomberg
Supply Chain Feature
The US freight RECESSION IS DEEPENING: The US truckloads index FELL to its lowest since 2014, as fewer goods are being moved across the country. The sector is in a goods recession, a setup that could force many small trucking firms out of business - Global Markets Investor
The country is a sea of red. Red means spot rates are dropping relative to the last 4 days.
The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SPIKED to 11.8%, an ALL-TIME HIGH. Office CMBS delinquencies SPIKED 10 points in just 3 YEARS. The commercial real estate CRISIS is FAR from over.
US HOUSEHOLD DEBT HITS RECORD $18.59 TRILLION,
MORTGAGE DEBT: $13.07T — ALL-TIME HIGH,
CREDIT CARD DEBT: $1.23T — ALL-TIME HIGH,
STUDENT LOANS: $1.65T — RECORD HIGH,
AUTO LOANS: $1.66T — ALL-TIME HIGH - First Squawk
The USPS just reported a $9 billion loss for fiscal 2025 with a 5.7% parcel volume drop. Most people see this and think okay, the post office is losing package business to Amazon and FedEx but no that’s only part of the reason. USPS controls roughly a third of the parcel market by volume but only captures 17% of the industry’s revenue. Theyre printing massive volume while getting paid like a discount carrier. UPS and FedEx are printing money on the high margin stuff while USPS is stuck doing the volume plays. Meanwhile they’re also saddled with mandatory pension funding obligations that their commercial competitors don’t have to deal with. Since 2007, USPS has accumulated over $100 billion in cumulative losses. The agency spends $9.30 for every dollar it brings in. The attempted fixes have backfired spectacularly. They raised stamp prices 46% since 2019 yet mail volume still hit its lowest level since 1967. They’ve cut transportation costs and incentivized early retirements but operating expenses are still climbing year over year despite all of it. The controllable loss actually surged from $1.8 billion to $2.7 billion a $900 million deterioration. Congress has also pumped over $160 billion into USPS through various bailout, pandemic relief grants and debt transfers rather than actually fixing the underlying business model. They won’t officially convert USPS to a publicly funded utility so it’s trapped between trying to operate like a business and delivering universal service to every address in America. That’s an impossible mandate. - Stock Market News
Intermodal rail was performing well earlier this year due to the lower cost and slow movement of cargo. Shippers wanted to slow their supply chains down this year, as inventory started to turn slower. A strange counter development, usually it’s the other way around. But intermodal rail demand started to sharply slow starting in September, another sign of a sharp slowdown in the goods economy. Note the delta on the charts between 2023 and 2025 is starting to sharply compress.
Freight continues it’s epic collapse, with the Cass Shipment Index giving off some of the most significant warning signs about the state of the goods economy. The Cass Shipment Index, the benchmark freight index, has dropped to October 2009 levels, the height of the Great Financial Crisis. - X user Craig Fuller
Spot rates are cooling off as we move into Thanksgiving week. This is not normal. Spot rates usually cook as we head into a major holiday. - X user Craig Fuller
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