$Medtronic PLC(MDT)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, November 18, 2025.
Medtronic (MDT) Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis
The general consensus from analysts points to continued growth, supported by momentum in key product lines.
MDT has a recent history of beating EPS estimates in the trailing four quarters, but this doesn't guarantee a positive stock reaction.
Medtronic Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Medtronic delivered a quarter that beat analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines, driven by strong growth in key innovation-led segments.
Key Performance Highlights
Segment Strength: The Cardiovascular Portfolio and the Diabetes business were the standout growth engines.
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Cardiovascular: Grew +7.0% (Organic), led by the Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS) segment, which saw growth of nearly 50% globally, driven by the rollout of Pulsed Field Ablation (PFA) systems.
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Diabetes: Grew +7.9% (Organic), powered by the international adoption of the MiniMed 780G system and the company entering a new innovation cycle.
Innovation Driving Growth: The CEO emphasized that the success was due to a strong pipeline of innovative products like PFA, Transcatheter Valves (TAVR), and the AiBLE ecosystem in Spine.
Consistent Growth: The quarter marked the 11th consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, demonstrating stability.
Lessons Learned from Q1 Guidance
The primary takeaway from the Q1 2026 guidance was a clear message that Medtronic's acceleration story is "backend-loaded."
1. The Growth Is "Backend-Loaded" (H2 Acceleration is Crucial)
The Lesson: Investors must remain patient and focus on the momentum rather than the absolute growth rate of the first half of the year.
Guidance Reiterated: Management reiterated the full-year organic revenue growth guidance of .
The Wait: Management specifically stated that the most significant revenue acceleration will occur in the second half (H2) of fiscal 2026. This is due to the full commercial ramp-up and supply expansion of major new products, particularly the PFA systems in Cardiovascular, and the planned launches of new sensors like Simplera Sync in Diabetes.
Investor Implication: A strong H1 beat is not enough if H2 guidance is weak. Conversely, a modest H2 2026 is critical to validate the management's growth story.
2. Earnings Strength is Driven by Efficiency, Not Just Sales
The Lesson: Medtronic's operating leverage is improving, making expense management a key driver of EPS growth.
EPS Guidance Raised: MDT raised its full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $5.60 - $5.66 (from the prior $5.50 - $5.60 range), despite only reiterating the organic revenue guidance.
The Reason: The EPS raise was primarily attributed to improved assumptions on the net impact of tariffs (lowering the expected hit from down to ) and ongoing operational efficiency improvements in manufacturing and the supply chain.
Investor Implication: The quality of earnings is improving through cost control, not solely relying on massive top-line growth.
3. Diabetes Separation Remains a Key Value Driver
The Lesson: Strategic portfolio management, specifically the planned separation of the Diabetes business, is a defined initiative for creating shareholder value.
Management reaffirmed its intent to separate the Diabetes business within 15 months, stating that the move would be immediately EPS-accretive to the remaining Medtronic company.
Investor Implication: The market is now factoring in this separation as a concrete step to "sharpen the focus" of the core medical technology business, removing the uncertainty around the segment's performance drag over recent years.
The overall narrative from Q1 was: Solid execution + key product excitement, with a clear roadmap that promises accelerated revenue and stronger EPS in the latter half of the fiscal year.
Key Metrics and Segment Performance to Watch
Investors should focus on the underlying business segments, as performance here is crucial for long-term growth and could be the primary catalyst for short-term price movement.
Forward-Looking Guidance
For a mature company like Medtronic, the updated full-year fiscal 2026 guidance is often the most significant factor influencing the stock price post-earnings.
The company previously raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.60 - $5.66. Any revision to this range, especially a higher one, will be heavily scrutinized.
Commentary on organic revenue growth for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Medtronic (MDT) Price Target
Based on 25 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Medtronic in the last 3 months. The average price target is $101.89 with a high forecast of $115.00 and a low forecast of $78.00. The average price target represents a 6.28% change from the last price of $95.87.
Opportunity for Short-Term Trading Post-Earnings
Trading around earnings is inherently high-risk, but here are factors for a short-term assessment:
Surprise in Segment Growth: A significant beat or miss in the high-growth segments, particularly Cardiovascular and Diabetes, could trigger a move, as these areas are vital for the company's future.
Guidance Adjustment: As noted, an unexpected increase or decrease in the full-year EPS or revenue guidance can lead to sharp short-term moves, regardless of whether the Q2 results meet expectations. Medtronic's stock has shown a tendency to decline even after beating estimates in recent quarters if the market sees any cause for concern in the outlook.
Technical Performance: MDT's stock performance has lagged the S&P 500 composite recently. A positive catalyst is needed to break the stock out of its current trading range. A very strong report (beat on both EPS/Revenue and raised guidance) would likely be required for a significant positive move.
Note: Historical data shows that MDT shares have dropped in price the day after the last few earnings reports, even when beating analyst expectations (e.g., -3.14% after Q1 2026 earnings). This suggests the market is sensitive to qualitative guidance and any perceived shortcomings, creating a potential for volatility even on an "earnings beat."
As investors, I feel that we should consider these are the key data points that will likely drive the stock's short-term reaction.
Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Though from historical data, we are seeing that MDT share price using suffered a decline after its earnings call, even though the results beat analysts expectations, but if we looked at how the recent share price of MDT was for last week, it have make an upside movement despite a negative RSI momentum.
So are we seeing investors looking at this stock for rotation, and will this actually change how the stock price might move if MDT provide an earnings beat, looking at how MDT shares trade below its earnings release the previous quarter, we can see a pretty significant contrast, so would investors consider MDT earnings play to hedge against another market pullback due to AI/Tech pullback or correction.
Could this signal sector rotation if we experience another pullback session this week?
Summary
Medtronic (MDT) is expected to report its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, with analysts anticipating another quarter of steady, innovation-driven growth.
Consensus Expectations
Adjusted EPS: $1.31 (a increase year-over-year)
Revenue: $8.86 Billion (a increase year-over-year)
Key Metrics for Investors
The market will scrutinize the performance of MDT's key growth drivers:
Cardiovascular Revenue: Expected to lead growth () fueled by the global adoption of the Evolut FX+ TAVR device and high-demand products like the Micra leadless pacemaker.
Diabetes Revenue: Expected to accelerate () driven by the international success of the MiniMed 780G system and the commercial ramp-up of the Simplera Sync CGM.
Forward Guidance: Crucially, investors will focus on whether management raises the full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance (currently $5.60 - $5.66). A positive revision would validate the company's "backend-loaded" growth story.
Short-Term Trading Opportunity
Short-term trading (post-earnings) will be driven primarily by the Guidance and Cardiovascular/Diabetes segment beats/misses. Given Medtronic's history of stock declines even after small EPS beats, any downward revision to guidance or a miss in the fast-growing segments could trigger volatility and a short-term sell-off. Conversely, a combination of an EPS/Revenue beat and a guidance raise would likely lead to a significant positive move.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MDT could provide a potential upside movement this time if the earnings beat expectations, and could this signal that we are seeing rotation from tech to healthcare (defensive stocks)?
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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