RabBird
11-17

$AMZN 20260417 215.0 PUT$ 

🚨 Is the AI Bubble Already Here? Amazon Might Have Just Confirmed It. 🚨

👉 Amazon just did something it hasn’t done in three years — it went to the bond market to borrow money.

They’re issuing debt in up to six parts, including a 40-year bond, to raise cash for “general corporate purposes.” That sounds normal… until you look at the bigger picture.

Here’s why this matters:

• Big tech companies are spending massively on AI.

• Data centers, chips, and infrastructure cost billions.

• But the ROI is still unclear.

• Cash levels are going down.

• So companies are now borrowing to stay ahead in the AI race.

🚂 This is how bubbles form:

Everyone spends because everyone else is spending — not because the returns are proven.

What I think is happening

We’re entering a “perfect storm” where:

• Corporates have less cash

• But feel forced to keep investing in AI

• So they turn to debt and bond issuance

• Even though no one knows if AI will pay off fast enough

It’s the same pattern we saw in the dotcom boom — big promises, huge spending, unclear profits.

👀 My view: AI is real.

But the AI economics aren’t real yet.

When companies as big as Amazon start borrowing to keep up, it tells me one thing:

👉 The AI bubble is forming — and we’re closer to the peak than most people think. 🫧🗯️

Amazon plans to raise about $12 billion in US bonds
Amazon launched its first U.S. high-grade bond offering in nearly three years on Nov. 17. It plans to raise about $12 billion in up to six tranches of the bond. The funds will be used for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, acquisitions and investments.
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Comments

  • Merle Ted
    11-19
    Merle Ted
    Investors are foolished by Wall Street and sold at low price. Remember that AMZN just had a very good earning report. This is a huge buying opportunity!

  • dong123
    11-18
    dong123
    AI frenzy feels like 2000s dotcom crash [看跌]
  • Venus Reade
    11-19
    Venus Reade
    Be ready to buy at $195!! All in !

    • RabBird
      If a bear season does hit, we might see lows of $150 and beyond. $195 is indeed attractive, but I would hold back and start DCA at $180, and get more if it continues to slide!
  • Maurice Bertie
    11-18
    Maurice Bertie
    Big AI spending = future dominance! Amazon’s move is strategic, not reckless.
    • RabBird
      I agree that the move is strategic, not reckless. AI is real, but the economics is not, yet.
      If hiring a worker improves your business efficiency by 100%, it would make sense to hire as many workers as possible. A bubble happens if hiring outpaces the workload available and you have idle workers.
  • Porter Harry
    11-18
    Porter Harry
    It becomes harder to get profits from the market in the remaining months.
    • RabBird
      I agree. If consumers are having having affordability issues, what “work” then would there be for AI to do?
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