TSMC is bullish on its layout amid the rebound of AI themes

OptionsAura
11-20

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) $On November 20, the stock price closed at $282.37, up 1.60% in a single day, and the intraday amplitude was 2.96%. The technical aspect showed a trend of breaking through the previous high.

After the U.S. stock market closed yesterday, NVIDIA reported that its revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 (usually ending October 26, 2025) was about$57 billion, an increase of about 22% from the previous quarter and an increase of about 62% from the same period last year. Third quarter net profit was approximately$31.91 billion, diluted earnings per share approximately$1.30。 The company has strong guidance for the next quarter, the fourth quarter of the fiscal year: it expects revenue to be about$65 billion(± 2%), gross profit margin of approximately 74.8%-75% (± 0.5 percentage points), etc.

After the financial report was announced, the company's stock price rose in after-hours trading, which the market saw as a signal of "large-scale expansion of AI infrastructure." Many analysts said that this financial report weakened market concerns about an "AI bubble" and believed that NVIDIA is still in the midst of artificial intelligence demandEarly stage

As a core supplier of AI propellers and many cloud service providers and data center customers, NVIDIA's strong performance is regarded asAI infrastructure wave continues to expandVerification of. This also provides confidence for related industrial chains (including GPU manufacturing, data center hardware, and AI software platforms).

Bull Put Spread

1. Strategy structure

Investors Build A on TSMC StockBull Put Spread Bull Put Spread, consisting of two put options with the same expiration date:

  • Sell higher strike price Put: K ₂ = 275, collect premium 2.48

  • Buy Lower Strike Put: K ₁ = 267.5, Pay premium 1.20

The combination belongs toBe bullish (or expect the price to remain above a certain range)The credit strategy has limited maximum returns and limited maximum losses.

When TSMC's stock price is at expirationMaintain at $275 or higher, investors can achieve maximum profits.

Initial net income

The net premium obtained by investors when opening a position is:

Net income = sell 275 P income − buy 267.5 P expense = 2.48 − 1.20 =$1.28/share

If 1 mouth = 100 shares, then:

Total revenue = 1.28 × 100 =$128/contract

This is strategicMaximum potential benefits, is locked when the position is opened.

This is the strategyMaximum potential benefits, is locked when the position is opened.

3. Maximum profit

When TSMC Expires Price≥ $275At that time, both Put options are out-of-the-money options, and the investor retains all net income.

Maximum profit =$1.28/share

Total maximum profit

= $128/contract

4. Maximum loss

If TSMC price expires≤ $267.5, both Put shares are in-the-money, the spread is completely triggered, and investors suffer the biggest loss.

Strike spread = 275 − 267. 5 =$7.5

Maximum Loss = Strike Spread − Net Income = 7.5 − 1.28 =$6.22/share

Total maximum loss = 6.22 × 100 =$622/contract

This situation corresponds to a significant decline in TSMC.

5. Break-even point

The breakeven point formula for the put spread is:

Breakeven = Higher Strike Price − Net Income = 275 − 1.28 =$273.72

Hence:

  • If due TSMC ≥$273.72→ Investors profit

  • If due TSMC <$273.72→ The strategy starts to lose money

The break-even point shows that investors have a certain price buffer, and even if TSMC falls to 273.72 yuan, it will still not lose money.

6. Risk and return characteristics

  • Maximum gain: $128/contract

  • Maximum loss: $622/contract

  • Profit/loss ratio approximately: 1: 4.86

  • Strategy applicable scenario: Investors expect TSMC prices to remain around $275 or higher, or at least not fall below the break-even point

  • Strategy attributes: long, credit strategy, limited returns, limited risks

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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