Markets Stabilize Despite Falling Rate-Cut Odds
Markets Stabilize
The market snapped its four-day losing streak, even as expectations for a December rate cut dropped sharply.
Index Close Change Dow Jones 46,138.77 +0.10%; $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 6,642.16 +0.38%; $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ 22,564.23 +0.59%
Investor sentiment shifted after:
-
The BLS announced no October jobs report, reducing clarity ahead of the December Fed meeting.
-
FOMC minutes revealed a hawkish tone, with significantly more policy members signaling concern about inflation.
-
Rate-cut expectations fell to just 32.7%, from 50% a day earlier and over 93% one month ago.
This places even greater focus on November’s employment data, due December 16, now likely a pivotal input for Fed policy.
Fed Tone: The Hawks Take the Lead
According to Rosenberg Research’s analysis:
-
Hawkish comments outnumbered dovish ones 16 to 12, with stronger conviction coming from the hawks.
-
The lack of October data weakens the case for a cut. Transparency is limited, uncertainty stays elevated.
-
Traders now see just a two-thirds chance of at least one rate cut by January, down from 70% yesterday.
The Fed isn’t ready to pivot. The market may need to adjust to a longer period of “higher for longer.”
AI: Nvidia Reignites the Trade
Despite mounting skepticism in recent weeks, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ delivered a standout quarter, and the AI trade has new life. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
Earnings Beat Expectations
-
EPS: $1.30 vs. $1.26 expected
-
Revenue: $57B vs. $54.9B expected
-
Current-quarter outlook: midpoint of $65B (vs. $62.2B consensus)
-
Stock: +2.9% during session, +5% after-hours
Key Insights from Nvidia:
-
“Blackwell sales are off the charts… cloud GPUs are sold out.” CEO Jensen Huang
-
Increased demand across training and inference, both accelerating
-
Nvidia claims its GPUs retain economic value longer than expected, countering depreciation concerns
-
A100 GPUs from six years ago are still running at full utilization
TOP MOVERS
Category Name Move Hot Stock $Block, Inc.(XYZ)$ +7.6% Biggest Loser Eversource Energy -12.5% Best Sector $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ +0.7% Worst Sector Energy -1.3%
Near-Term Catalysts
Earnings: Walmart · Intuit · Copart · Ross Stores · Jacobs Solutions · Veeva Systems
Data: 📌 Existing-home sales (October) National Association of Realtors
Conclusion – A Market at Crossroads
Investors are navigating two competing forces:
Macro Pressure AI Momentum Fewer rate cuts likely Nvidia revived sentiment Data delays breed uncertainty Strong demand & pricing power Hawks gaining influence at Fed AI narrative regains credibility…
If you found this summary helpful, be sure to like and subscribe to stay informed on the economic trends shaping markets.
This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
@TigerStars @TigerEvents @Tiger_comments @CaptainTiger @TigerCommunity
Comments