Weekly | Could $CHC’s upgraded outlook explain the 12.7% jump?

As of the close on Friday, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 8,416.50 on Friday, down 2.18% in the past 5 days.

1. $CHARTER HALL GROUP(CHC.AU)$ +12.72%

• The main driver was Charter Hall's upgrade of its Fiscal Year 2026 (FY26) Operating Earnings Per Security (OEPS) guidance by 5.5%, from 90.0 cents to 95.0 cents . This new forecast represents a 16.7% increase over the FY25 result .

• The guidance upgrade was fueled by heightened investment activity and an acceleration in transaction volumes since June 2025 . This led to increased earnings across its Property Investment, Development Investment, and Funds Management divisions .

• Following the announcement, the prominent broker Macquarie upgraded its rating on Charter Hall shares from "underperform" to "neutral" . They also raised their 12-month target price to A$23.83, a 25% increase from their previous target .

• The positive operational update and analyst upgrade boosted investor confidence, pushing the share price to an all-time high . The market appears to be rewarding the company's strong momentum and growth prospects, despite some concerns about its current valuation .

2. $SONIC HEALTHCARE LTD(SHL.AU)$ +8.30%

• The company maintained its fiscal year 2026 EBITDA guidance of A$1.87 billion to A$1.95 billion, signaling confidence in achieving up to 13% earnings growth . This reassured investors about the company's growth trajectory.

• Sonic reported a 17% year-on-year increase in statutory revenue for the year to October 2025, demonstrating strong operational momentum early in the new fiscal year .

• The company revised its forecasts for depreciation and interest expenses downward . This change implies a higher projected net profit, leading at least one analyst to expect consensus profit upgrades .

• Positive sentiment surrounded the recent acquisition of LADR Laboratory Group in Germany . The market views this strategic move as a key driver for future growth, expecting it to contribute significantly to earnings .

3. $JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES-CDI(JHX.AU)$ +7.02%

• The company raised its full-year FY26 financial outlook. It now expects total adjusted EBITDA between $1.20 billion and $1.25 billion, a substantial increase from its previous forecast of $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion .

• Following the report, brokers like Macquarie and Morgans issued positive research notes . Macquarie retained its "outperform" rating with a price target of A$41.70, suggesting a potential 46% upside, while Morgans upgraded the stock to a "buy" .

• The integration of the AZEK acquisition is progressing well, exceeding cost-saving targets ahead of schedule and contributing to sales growth . The market also responded positively to the appointment of a new Chair and CFO, viewing it as a strengthening of the company's governance .

4. $Light & Wonder Inc(LNW.AU)$ +5.76%

• LNW reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.81, which significantly surpassed analyst estimates of $1.39 . This impressive profit growth occurred despite revenue for the quarter being slightly below expectations .

• Following the earnings report, Macquarie maintained an "outperform" rating on the stock with a 12-month price target of A$170 (approximately $112 USD), suggesting a potential 21% upside for investors . This positive outlook is based on expectations for the growing North American iGaming market .

• The company has been actively repurchasing its own shares, including 85,599 securities bought back as recently as November 19, 2025 . This ongoing buy-back program is part of the company's strategy to enhance shareholder value .

• Analysts highlighted that Light & Wonder is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding US iGaming and online lottery market, which is projected to see significant growth . The company's diversified presence across physical, digital, and online casinos is viewed as a strategic advantage .

5. $LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD(LYC.AU)$ +3.67%

• UBS analysts upgraded their rating on Lynas from 'neutral' to 'buy' and raised their 12-month price target by nearly 18% to A$17.80, fueling investor optimism .

• UBS highlighted that spot prices for Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) had rallied 40% year-to-date. They also forecast a long-term ex-China price of USD 100 per kilogram, well above the current price in Lynas' model .

• UBS projects that the company's heavy rare earth expansion in Malaysia will eventually add roughly A$700 million in incremental revenue from FY28, a boost of about 27% .