I think Morgan Stanley’s predictions are too bullish. While I expect the next year to continue to rally forward, I don’t think it is as rosy as painted. No one can be completely sure of what events are going to play out next year and the world is increasingly contentious and fragmented with each more obviously looking out for their own interest.
I do think that equities will outperform credit and government bonds as for most years and so most likely to come true. Earnings reports have been strong and definitely many expect rate cuts to happen next year as the Fed chair changes and is expected to align with trump’s wish of rapid rate cuts. This will be significant in driving the US stocks rally and AI definitely will be centre stage as the world capitalise on its potential and with the rapid advancements.
I think metals outperforming energy could go completely wrong considering how expensive metals already are. As uncertainty eases with wars ending and rate cuts, metals might plunge.
2026: Will “Nothing Happen,” or Will Everything Be Repriced?
Deutsche Bank macro strategist Jim Reid recently put forward a highly counterintuitive view: after years of shocks—from the pandemic and surging inflation to abrupt policy pivots—the most surprising outcome ahead might actually be no surprises at all.
Which scenario do you think is most likely to actually happen in 2026?
An AI bubble bursting
Gold breaking above $5,000
U.S. equities hitting new highs
Repeated Fed policy reversals
Or… “nothing happens”
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