$Intel (INTC) $Shares soared more than 10% on Friday as Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, said that Intel is expected to become the foundry supplier of some M-series processors of Apple (AAPL), which is a foundry for Intel's wafer. The foundry business has brought new expectations.
Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out on X (formerly Twitter) that his latest industry survey shows that Intel's possibility of becoming Apple's advanced manufacturing process supplier has "significantly increased" recently. According to its disclosure, Apple has signed a confidentiality agreement (NDA) with Intel and obtained the PDK 0.9. 1GA of Intel's 18AP advanced node. At present, key simulation and research projects (such as PPA) are progressing smoothly and meet the expectations of both parties. Apple is waiting for Intel to launch PDK 1.0/1.1 in the first quarter of 2026, and if all goes well, Intel can start shipping its lowest-end M-series processors as early as the second to third quarters of 2027. The actual timeline still depends on Intel's development progress after obtaining the new version of PDK.
These lowest-end M-series chips are mainly used in MacBook Air and iPad Pro, and the two types of products are expected to ship a total of about 20 million units this year.
Ming-Chi Kuo believes that this potential cooperation is of positive significance to both parties. For Apple, this reflects support for the Trump administration's "Made in America" policy; For Intel, the importance of winning Apple's advanced manufacturing process orders far exceeds the revenue and profits of the business itself, and will also significantly enhance its foundry services (IFS) industry status.
He further pointed out that although Intel will still be difficult to fully compete with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in the next few years, successfully obtaining Apple orders will mean that IFS is coming out of the most difficult stage. Looking ahead, with the advancement of 14A nodes and more advanced manufacturing processes, Intel has the opportunity to obtain more orders from Apple and other front-line customers, making its long-term prospects more positive.
It is worth noting that since Apple launched the M-series chips in 2020, all chips have been exclusively manufactured by TSMC. If Intel joins the supply chain, TSMC's order volume may decline. However, according to current news, Intel only manufactures basic M-series chips and does not involve higher-end versions. Foreign media also generally believe that even if Intel participates, most of Apple's M-series processors will continue to be produced by TSMC.
Nevertheless, transferring some orders to Intel will help Apple diversify its supply chain and avoid over-reliance on single-generation factories for key components. It is also in line with the policy direction of the United States to strengthen local semiconductor manufacturing.
Bear Call Spread
1. Strategy structure
Investors Build A on Intel (INTC)Bear Call Spread, consisting of two Call options with the same expiration date:
Sell lower strike price Call: K ₁ = 42.5, US stock premium income $0.80
Buy a higher strike price Call: K ₂ = 47, US stock premium spends $0.25
The strategy belongs toCredit type, bearishCombination of. Investors expect Intel at expirationNot breaking above $42.5, the lower the better, thereby retaining the net premium.
Initial net income
Net premium (per share)= 0.80 − 0.25 =$0.55/Share
1 mouth = 100 strands, therefore:
Total revenue= 0.55 × 100 =$55/contract
This is locked when opening a positionMaximum potential profit。
3. Maximum profit
When Intel Expiration Price≤ US $42.5At that time, both Calls were out-of-price, and all premium income was retained by investors.
Maximum profit= $55/contract
4. Maximum loss
When Intel Expiration Price≥ $47At that time, both Calls are in-the-money and the spread is fully triggered, but the investor still retains the net income.
Strike spread= 47 − 42.5 =$4.5/share
Maximum loss (per share)= 4.5 − 0.55 =$3.95/Share
Total maximum loss= 3.95 × 100 =$395/contract
5. Break-even point
Break-even point= K ₁ + Net Income = 42.5 + 0.55 =$43.05
Maturity judgment rules:
≤ $43.05 → Earnings
$43.05 → Loss
6. Risk and return characteristics
Maximum gain: $55/contract (limited)
Maximum loss: $395/contract (limited)
Profit to Loss Ratio: 1: 7.18(Bear 395 losses for 55 gains)
Applicable scenarios:Investors Expect Intel Before ExpirationSideways or down, but will not break through the pressure range near $43
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