You raise very timely and important questions about Intel (INTC), and whether the recent rally marks the end of its run — or a stepping-stone in a larger transformation. Below is how I view the situation, and my thoughts if I were you, given a price around US $40.

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🔍 What’s behind Intel’s recent surge

The recent ~10 % surge was triggered by a report — from analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo — that Intel’s chance of becoming a foundry supplier for Apple has “improved significantly”, possibly leading to Intel manufacturing Apple’s M-series chips starting 2027. 

The rally reflects renewed investor optimism: after years of being seen primarily as a legacy CPU maker, the market seems to be repricing Intel as a potentially relevant “foundry + manufacturing infrastructure” play. 

Despite the run-up, Intel remains modestly valued: some commentary notes that even at these levels the stock trades at a relatively low price-to-book, leaving headroom if execution improves. 

In short: the jump is not random — it reflects a re-assessment of Intel’s long-term potential, contingent on its foundry strategy succeeding.

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🧮 Has the run already “finished”? What $40 means

From a purely technical or momentum-based perspective, a >100% year-to-date gain is substantial, and a period of consolidation, pullback, or volatility would not be surprising. On the other hand:

The “new narrative” for Intel — as a foundry that could supply Apple and other high-profile clients — suggests this rally could be more than a short-term bounce, but the early stage of a multi-year transformation.

Given that many analysts’ price targets are still below current levels, but that sentiment seems to be shifting, the stock may still have room to run if execution validates expectations.

My view: the run has likely entered a new phase. It’s not over — but it has moved from “catch-up rebound” into a more speculative “growth-on-potential” phase.

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✅ If I held Intel at ~US $40: Sell, Hold or Buy more?

If I were you and held Intel now:

I would not necessarily sell all. Holding a portion seems reasonable to capture possible upside if the foundry-to-Apple or foundry-to-other-customers narrative plays out.

I might take some profits, to de-risk the position slightly — especially given the stock already doubled this year, and there is uncertainty around actual orders, process yields, and competition.

I would only accumulate more selectively (if adding at all) — and only with the mindset that this is a speculative, long-horizon play (multi-year), not a guaranteed growth stock.

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🔭 What I think of Intel’s transformation — Cautious Optimism

The potential win of Apple as a foundry customer could be a “game-changer” for Intel’s manufacturing business. It would validate Intel’s advanced-node readiness, improve confidence among other customers, and materially re-shape how Intel is perceived. 

The broader strategy — including previous deals (for example with Nvidia) — could make Intel’s infrastructure relevant again, especially as demand for AI, PCs, and diverse chipmaking increases. 

However, there remain real risks: historically slow external uptake for Intel Foundry Services (IFS), prior process delays, yield issues, and stiff competition from specialist foundries. 

So, while I’m cautiously optimistic about the transformation — seeing a plausible path for Intel to reclaim relevance — I would treat any investment as a high-risk, high-reward long-term play.