Key Points
China’s latest PMIs show manufacturing unexpectedly slipping back into contraction and services turning negative, underscoring weak domestic demand even as export orders improve.
Black Friday is losing its edge as a single “event,” with spending over the Turkey 5 declining, foot traffic flat and promotions stretched across the season, pressuring retail margins.
Asian equities retreated as a stronger yen and 17-year-high JGB yields signaled growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, cooling risk appetite despite intact Fed cut hopes.
Oil prices rebounded about 2% as supply risks from Caspian pipeline disruptions and U.S.–Venezuela tensions outweighed persistent concerns about a global crude glut.
China PMIs flag renewed factory slowdown despite export uptick
China’s private RatingDog manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.9 in November, unexpectedly dipping into contraction and missing forecasts of 50.5, as new orders and production stalled despite the fastest rise in export orders in eight months.
The survey reinforces the official PMI, which showed an eighth straight month of factory contraction and the first decline in non-manufacturing activity since 2022, underscoring how weak domestic demand, a deep property slump and falling investment are dragging growth toward sub-4.5% in Q4.
While a recent U.S.–China trade truce has eased external uncertainty, equities’ modest gains suggest investors remain cautious about a durable demand recovery.
Black Friday loses its punch as promotions stretch and shoppers pull back
Black Friday is increasingly a muted, drawn-out promotion rather than a single, high-impact retail event, as U.S. consumers spend less over the Thanksgiving “Turkey 5” and foot traffic stagnates despite resilient online sales.
Retailers such as Walmart, Target and Kohl’s now spread discounts across November, diluting the urgency of one-day “doorbusters” and easing staffing and inventory pressures.
Yet weaker real spending, “rampant discounting” and overlapping promotions have eroded trust in deals, with millennials and Gen X less likely to concentrate purchases on Black Friday.
The result is steadier but softer holiday demand, pressuring margins and favouring scale players with strong e-commerce and pricing analytics.
Asian stocks slip as yen strengthens on BOJ hints and risk appetite cools
Asian equities started December on the back foot, with the Nikkei down about 2% and regional indices softer as a firmer yen and rising Japanese government bond yields signaled growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike.
Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments pushed the yen to around 155.55 per dollar and drove 2- and 10-year JGB yields to their highest levels since 2008, reinforcing a risk-off tone that also saw S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fall 0.7%–0.8% and bitcoin and ether drop more than 5%.
While Hang Seng gains reflected hopes for more China stimulus after weak PMIs, global sentiment remains tied to upcoming U.S. data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments, even as traders still price an 87% chance of a December rate cut and oil edges higher after OPEC+ kept output unchanged.
Comments