RabBird
2025-12-11

$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 

🐯 Oracle Earnings: Tiny Miss, Big Warning for the AI Trade

Oracle’s latest earnings weren’t a blow-up, but the reaction was:

• Revenue slightly missed expectations.

• Cloud & AI (OCI) still grew strongly, but not “wow” enough for the hype.

• Stock got smacked ~10–15% in a day.

That tells you one thing:

AI leaders are now priced for perfection. Anything less = punishment.

On top of that:

• AI data center capex is exploding,

• Debt is piling up,

• We’re in a higher-rate world – funding that AI arms race isn’t free anymore.

So what’s the takeaway?

• AI demand is real, but the trade is fragile.

• Market has shifted from “AI story” → “show me the numbers now.”

• Crowded AI names are one small miss away from a big de-rating.

Good time to be picky on AI, watch capex vs free cash flow, and remember:

when one “AI pillar” stumbles and the whole basket wobbles, that’s not strength – that’s narrative stress.

Long term bull, but a bear is starting to show up in the foreseeable future.

Modified in.2025-12-12
Oracle +6%! Does TikTok News Change Oracle’s Fundamentals?
Oracle shares extended gains to about 6% in after-hours trading following reports that ByteDance and TikTok have signed agreements with a group of investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. The rebound comes after Oracle’s stock fell roughly 10% on its recent earnings release and has declined about 50% from its year-to-date high amid concerns around debt and CDS pricing. ----- How significant do you think this agreement could be for Oracle’s long-term fundamentals? After such a large drawdown, how would you approach risk management or position sizing in Oracle?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Mortimer Arthur
    2025-12-12
    Mortimer Arthur
    I know it's small compared to the whole AI bet but I think the TikTok investment could also be huge and a lot of people are missing that.

    • RabBirdReplyRabBird: 
      That’s a warning sign about how stretched the system is, not a sign of healthy, organic demand. With JGB most possibly hiking rates next week, liquidity out-flow is expected of the US, as investors move to higher yielding assets. Right now, everyone needs money from the same pot.
    • RabBird: 
      I’m more concerned about stagflation. The macro economic situation does not bode well. the Fed and Treasury are increasingly relying on buybacks and balance sheet expansion to keep yields in check, suggesting that the market wants ever-higher yields to absorb all this debt.
    • RabBird: 
      The pot is limited, but everyone wants to draw from it. And the only way to do so is to offer higher yield for bonds. I foresee bonds offering 6-8% yields or potentially higher if this continues, making old bonds worth less.
  • Enid Bertha
    2025-12-12
    Enid Bertha
    甲骨文需要玛拉的精力来建设数据中心。以比特币囤积为后盾

    • RabBird: 
      我和你有同样的观点，权力中心同样重要。然而，目前的宏观经济形势似乎并没有指向“增长”，公司有可能破产。在我再次进去之前，我会采取谨慎的观望态度进行“重置”。
  • JackQuant
    2025-12-12
    JackQuant
    不错的结论！
    • RabBird: 
      谢谢你的美言，希望你觉得我的帖子有见地。
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