RabBird
2025-12-11

$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 

🐯 Oracle Earnings: Tiny Miss, Big Warning for the AI Trade

Oracle’s latest earnings weren’t a blow-up, but the reaction was:

• Revenue slightly missed expectations.

• Cloud & AI (OCI) still grew strongly, but not “wow” enough for the hype.

• Stock got smacked ~10–15% in a day.

That tells you one thing:

AI leaders are now priced for perfection. Anything less = punishment.

On top of that:

• AI data center capex is exploding,

• Debt is piling up,

• We’re in a higher-rate world – funding that AI arms race isn’t free anymore.

So what’s the takeaway?

• AI demand is real, but the trade is fragile.

• Market has shifted from “AI story” → “show me the numbers now.”

• Crowded AI names are one small miss away from a big de-rating.

Good time to be picky on AI, watch capex vs free cash flow, and remember:

when one “AI pillar” stumbles and the whole basket wobbles, that’s not strength – that’s narrative stress.

Long term bull, but a bear is starting to show up in the foreseeable future.

Modified in.2025-12-12
Oracle +6%! Does TikTok News Change Oracle’s Fundamentals?
Oracle shares extended gains to about 6% in after-hours trading following reports that ByteDance and TikTok have signed agreements with a group of investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. The rebound comes after Oracle’s stock fell roughly 10% on its recent earnings release and has declined about 50% from its year-to-date high amid concerns around debt and CDS pricing. ----- How significant do you think this agreement could be for Oracle’s long-term fundamentals? After such a large drawdown, how would you approach risk management or position sizing in Oracle?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Mortimer Arthur
    2025-12-12
    Mortimer Arthur
    我知道与整个人工智能赌注相比，这很小，但我认为TikTok的投资也可能是巨大的，而很多人都忽略了这一点。

    • RabBirdReplyRabBird: 
      这是一个警告信号，表明系统已经捉襟见肘，而不是健康、有机需求的迹象。由于日本央行下周很可能加息，随着投资者转向收益率更高的资产，预计美国将出现流动性外流。现在，每个人都需要同一个锅里的钱。
    • RabBird: 
      我更担心滞胀。宏观经济形势不是好兆头。美联储和财政部越来越依赖回购和资产负债表扩张来控制收益率，这表明市场希望更高的收益率来吸收所有这些债务。
    • RabBird: 
      底池有限，但每个人都想从中提款。做到这一点的唯一方法是提供更高的债券收益率。我预计债券的收益率将为6-8%，如果这种情况持续下去，可能会更高，从而降低旧债券的价值。
  • Enid Bertha
    2025-12-12
    Enid Bertha
    Oracle needs MARA’s energy to build data centers. backed by it’s bitcoin hoard

    • RabBird: 
      I share the same approach as you that power Center will be equally important. However, the current macro economic situation does not seem to be pointing towards “growth” and there’s likelyhood of companies going under. I would take a cautious wait and see approach for a “reset” before I go in again.
  • JackQuant
    2025-12-12
    JackQuant
    Nice conclusion!
    • RabBird: 
      Thank you for your kind words, I hope you find my post insightful.
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