Weekly | Is strong gold momentum lifting $VAU, $NEM & $EVN?

ASX_Stars
12-12 16:49

As of the close on Friday, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 8,697.30 on Friday, up 1.18% in the past 5 days.

1. $Vault Minerals Ltd(VAU.AU)$ +8.74% & $NEWMONT CORP-CDI(NEM.AU)$ +8.58% & $EVOLUTION MINING LTD(EVN.AU)$ +6.33%

Common Reasons:

  • Gold prices surged above A$6,400/oz (equivalent to ~US$4,200+ globally) in early December, driven by expectations of US Fed rate cuts and geopolitical factors, boosting all ASX gold miners including VAU and NEM.

  • Broader ASX 200 gains, particularly in mining and gold stocks, with the index up ~1.2% on December 11 and gold miners leading, amplifying VAU & NEM's upward move amid positive market sentiment.

Reasons for Each Company:

  • VAU continued repurchasing shares, with updates showing over 2.8 million securities bought back by December 9 and further purchases announced on December 10, signaling strong management confidence in undervaluation.

  • Recent upgrades (e.g., Jefferies Buy with A$180 PT) and strong Q3 cash flow commentary fueled momentum, extending NEM's December gains as investors priced in sustained high gold prices.

  • Evolution funded an initial CA$3M into the Nevada North Lithium Project JV by mid-December, increasing its stake to ~25.85% and adding exposure to battery metals, attracting investors amid energy transition interest.

2. $PLS Group Ltd(PLS.AU)$ +7.89%

  • UBS upgraded PLS from Sell to Neutral with a A$4.00 price target around December 8-9, sharply raising lithium price forecasts and battery demand projections, sparking renewed buying interest.

  • Spodumene prices rallied above US$1,000/t and lithium carbonate gained ~25% YTD, driven by stronger EV and battery storage demand, boosting sentiment for pure-play producers like PLS.

  • The name change to PLS Group highlighted global expansion (including Brazil assets and POSCO JV), reinforcing its shift to a broader energy transition player and attracting investors.

3. $Alcoa Corp(AAI.AU)$ +6.14%

  • LME aluminum prices climbed to ~US$2,920/t (near 3-year highs) by early December, driven by China's production caps, reduced exports, and tight global supply amid rising demand from EVs and renewables.

  • ASX 200 rose ~1.2% on December 11-12 led by miners, with industrial metals and gold strength amplifying gains in aluminum-exposed stocks like AAI amid positive sentiment from Fed easing.

  • Chinese informal aluminum production ceiling (~45Mt/year) and export declines tightened global balances, supporting higher prices and boosting Alcoa's integrated operations.

  • Alcoa's strategic gallium project support, debt redemption announcement (notes due 2027), and strong Q3 results with cost efficiencies continued to underpin investor confidence in December.

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