AVAV Tests Key Support 4.3% Will Bounce Come

$AeroVironment(AVAV)$

AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) Drops -4.30%: Defense Drone Leader Faces Technical Pressure at $239, Support Test Critical

Latest Close Data

Current Price: $239.00 USD (EST close, Dec 15, 2025)
Change: -$10.75 (-4.30%)
Distance from 52W High: -42.8% below $417.86 peak
Trading Volume: 1.24M shares (0.63x average)

Core Market Drivers

Defense sector rotation and profit-taking pressures weighed on AVAV following recent gains.

Reduced volume at 0.63x normal suggests institutional caution rather than panic selling.

Geopolitical tensions continue supporting long-term defense spending outlook, but near-term momentum has stalled.

Technical Analysis

Volume: 1.24M shares (63% below average) indicates light selling pressure
MACD: -18.54 (DIF) vs -17.39 (DEA) showing bearish divergence expansion
RSI (6-day): 24.80 - deeply oversold territory signaling potential bounce
RSI (12-day): 28.78 - approaching oversold threshold

Key Price Levels

Primary Support: $238.31 (critical level from Dec 12)
Strong Resistance: $281.31 (previous breakdown point)
Immediate Pivot: $250.00 psychological resistance

Valuation Perspective

Forward P/E: 68.28 (above historical avg of 58.20)
P/S Ratio TTM: 8.71x (premium to defense sector average ~4-6x)
P/B Ratio: 2.70x indicating moderate book value premium

Analyst Targets

15 Analysts Coverage: Average target $390.20 (range: $315-$450)
Ratings Distribution: 7 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 1 Hold
Upside Potential: +63.4% to consensus target

Weekly Outlook

Expect consolidation between $235-$255 range as RSI oversold conditions suggest bounce potential.

Break below $238.31 support targets $220-225 zone. Recovery above $250 could retest $265-270 resistance cluster.

Risk Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Defense stocks carry sector-specific risks including government spending changes and geopolitical factors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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