RabBird
2025-12-17

$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 

🐯 Oracle’s $10B Data Center “On Hold” — AI Narrative Meets Credit Reality


Reuters just reported Oracle’s $10B Michigan data center is now in limbo after Blue Owl (its biggest data center partner) won’t back the deal, citing concerns around Oracle’s rising debt and AI spending.

Here’s the real takeaway:

✅ AI demand is real

❌ AI financing isn’t free anymore

Why this matters

• This isn’t a “chip shortage” problem — it’s a funding problem. When the lender gets cautious, the buildout slows.

• Tech is overheated without clear ROI. Credit markets don’t buy vibes — they buy cashflow.

• Higher rates = longer payback period. The “infinite AI capex” story breaks the moment financing terms tighten.

What I’m watching next

• Any changes to Oracle capex / debt trajectory

• Credit spreads / bond sentiment (that’s where the truth leaks first)

• Whether Oracle finds a new backer (FT says Blackstone is in discussions)

• Where JGB is going this week


Bottom line: AI isn’t dead — but this is a crack in the narrative.

When a $10B project can’t get clean funding, that’s your reminder: the AI boom is now a credit cycle story. 

Oracle's Michigan data center project financing talks stalled
Oracle's $10 billion Michigan data center project was deadlocked due to Blue Owl fund financing negotiations, and the project prospect was unclear, causing both Oracle and Blue Owl shares to fall before the market.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • groovix
    2025-12-18
    groovix
    Reality bites when credit cycles turn. AI still needs real cashflows [看跌]
    • RabBird: 
      I agree with your sentiments. We will know when JGB interest rates are announced, and see where liquidity flows to.
  • Enid Bertha
    2025-12-18
    Enid Bertha
    ORCL is fighting back on all incorrect news. This could be efforts of shorts to bring stock price down.

    • RabBird: 
      Balance sheets don’t, and can’t lie. Profitability is what matters at end day. Broadcom corrected even though guidance shows increased revenue, simply because margins is lower than expected despite increased revenue. The ROI on AI investment has not yet been proven, investors have lofty expectations
  • Merle Ted
    2025-12-18
    Merle Ted
    Oracle cannot fail its a backbone of AI.

    • RabBird: 
      Nothing and no one will be too big to fail. History has shown us that complacency and misjudgment is fatal.
  • Porter Harry
    2025-12-18
    Porter Harry
    哇，不错的期权交易！
Leave a comment
7
8