EdwardKarchi
12-19 08:50



Markets are finally showing some life again, helped by Micron’s earnings and a general rebound in tech. At the same time, everyone is watching the Bank of Japan closely — a rate hike now feels almost certain, with most expecting a 25bps move.

What’s interesting to me is that this BoJ hike is not really a surprise anymore. It’s been talked about for months. If Japan goes ahead with a “normal” hike and nothing dramatic happens, it could be one of those classic “sell the rumour, buy the fact” moments.

In that case, the uncertainty clears, and markets can refocus on earnings, liquidity, and positioning — which is usually when year-end rallies start to show up.

On the flip side, if the BoJ surprises the market (bigger hike, hawkish tone), we could still see some short-term volatility. But honestly, a lot of bad news already feels priced in.

My personal take:

If there’s no major shock, the path of least resistance into year-end still feels upward. Maybe not a straight line, but a grind higher — which is basically how most Santa rallies look anyway.

Not calling a straight moonshot, but I wouldn’t be surprised if markets finish the year stronger than many expect.

What do you think — Santa rally starts after BoJ, or one last dip before the year ends? 

Record Options Expiry Meets BoJ: Can S&P 500 Close Higher Tonight?
Wall Street faces an unprecedented “quadruple witching” this Friday, with record options expirations tied to roughly $5 trillion in S&P 500 exposure and another $880 billion linked to single stocks. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, in line with market expectations. This move lifted rates to their highest level in 30 years and marked the BOJ’s first rate hike in 11 months, since January 2025. ----------------- Will the bull hold 6800? How much effect would BOJ rate hike lay on US stock? Can Santa rally be assured tonight?
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