Lanceljx
12-20

Why 6,800 matters

It is a key psychological and options-heavy strike.

Without a fresh catalyst or strong mega-cap leadership, rallies into this zone tend to meet supply.

Pinning vs swings

Base case: Pinning dominates. Heavy near-dated options exposure typically pulls price towards the strike into the close, producing narrow ranges and late-session mean reversion.

Alternative: Swings dominate only if volatility expands, for example via a sharp move in yields or a large-cap driven flow. Even then, upside breaks risk being brief without volume follow-through.

Expectation

Intraday probes above 6,800 are possible.
A sustained close above 6,800 requires clear volume expansion.

Risk-reward currently favours patience over chasing a breakout.

Bottom line: Pinning pressure slightly outweighs directional conviction today, making a marginal or failed break more likely than a decisive close above 6,800.

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