Lanceljx
12-22 13:04

The rebound following Micron’s results has clearly stabilised sentiment, but whether this is a clean buy-the-dip for Nvidia depends on time horizon.

Fundamentals:

Morgan Stanley’s stance is credible. The AI compute cycle remains capacity-constrained, not demand-constrained. Nvidia still sits at the centre of this ecosystem, with strong visibility on data-centre orders extending into 2026. On that basis, dips driven by positioning or sentiment rather than earnings deterioration remain attractive for medium-term investors.

Near-term price action:

After a sharp rebound, the risk tonight is a gap-up-and-sell-the-news session. Micron’s beat reduces downside tail risk, but it also gives short-term traders an excuse to lock in gains. Nvidia has already rallied meaningfully off recent lows, so upside follow-through may be capped unless volume expands decisively.

How to frame it:

This looks less like an all-in entry and more like a scaled accumulation zone. Long-term investors can add selectively on weakness. Short-term traders should respect the possibility of post-gap consolidation.

In short: structurally bullish, tactically cautious. A healthy pause would strengthen, not weaken, the broader AI upcycle narrative.

H200 China Sales Near Confirmation: Can Nvidia's Rally Last?
Plans to sell the H200 to the Chinese market are now largely confirmed. NVIDIA has informed Chinese clients that it plans to begin delivering H200 chips around mid-February 2026. Total shipments are expected to reach 5,000–10,000 module sets, equivalent to roughly 40,000–80,000 H200 chips. NVIDIA shares rose 3% yesterday. With H200 sales acting as a catalyst, can this rebound be sustained? At current levels, is NVIDIA undervalued or already overvalued?
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