My pick for 2026: U.S. equities hitting new highs.
Earnings resilience, AI-driven productivity gains, and strong balance sheets still favour a grind higher, even if leadership narrows and volatility rises. New highs do not require exuberance, only sustained cash flow growth.
Gold above US$5,000 is plausible but conditional on sustained real-rate compression and geopolitical stress. It is more likely as a spike than a stable regime.
Fed policy reversals may occur, but more as incremental recalibration than dramatic U-turns.
An outright AI bubble burst looks least likely. A valuation reset or rotation is more realistic than a collapse.
Ironically, the true surprise could be “nothing happens”. A year of modest growth and range-bound markets would wrongfoot both extremes.
That said, my vote goes to U.S. equities making new highs in 2026.
2026: Will “Nothing Happen,” or Will Everything Be Repriced?
Deutsche Bank macro strategist Jim Reid recently put forward a highly counterintuitive view: after years of shocks—from the pandemic and surging inflation to abrupt policy pivots—the most surprising outcome ahead might actually be no surprises at all.
Which scenario do you think is most likely to actually happen in 2026?
An AI bubble bursting
Gold breaking above $5,000
U.S. equities hitting new highs
Repeated Fed policy reversals
Or… “nothing happens”
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