Even though 2025 isn't over yet, my news feeds are already buzzing with "it" stock predictions for 2026.
One post I came across from Motley Fool really caught my eye - highlighting the disruptive potential of the regional air mobility sector.
I invested a token sum and live to tell the story here !
I am referring to $Surf Air Mobility Inc.(SRFM)$: a regional air mobility company that is flying under the radar.
It's currently trading at $2.13 a share (as of end 24 Dec 2025), a steal.
With a market capitalization of approximately $134.67 million and a 52-week range of $1.77 to $9.91, SRFM is highly volatile, typical of a penny stock.
📈 Sofware as a Service (SaaS) Pivot.
Founded in 2012, SRFM is moving beyond just "flying people."
They are shifting toward a high-margin technology model.
(1) Flying People:
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SRFM operates a fleet of Cessna Grand Caravans that offer both (a) scheduled commuter flights. and (b) on-demand charter services.
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In 2024, they flew over 300,000 passengers, generating a foundational data set that powers their AI algorithms.
(2) SurfOS (SRFM secret sauce):
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This AI-powered platform is designed for the 400+ operators (Charter brokers, Aircraft operators and Aircraft owners) they are already connected to.
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By digitizing the "Part 135" (charter) and "Part 295" (broker) markets, SRFM is targeting a global private charter market estimated at $41 billion by 2029 (3 years’ time).
💪 Financial Attention.
SRFM has been making serious strides, delivering a stronger-than-expected Q3 2025 - their 7th consecutive quarter meeting or beating revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets.
Earnings per share (EPS):
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Improved by +31.91% YoY, from -$0.94 to -$0.64, outperforming analyst consensus of -$0.72. (see above)
Total Revenue:
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Grew by +2.85% YoY, coming in at $29.2 million.
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This beat market's expectation of $27 - $28.5 million and Q3 2024’s $28.39 million. (see above)
Efficiency Gains:
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By leveraging SurfOS, the on-demand team achieved a dual-pronged victory - (a) slashing expenses by -36% while (b) growing on-demand revenue by +40% YoY.
Valuation Logic:
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While the airline industry trades at a lowly 0.6x sales, SRFM's 1.2x P/S ratio suggests the market is starting to price it as a tech hybrid. (see above)
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If and when SRFM reaches the 4.3x P/S of peers (like Joby or Archer) as software revenue scales, the stock could see significant re-rating.
Reality Check:
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Despite all this progress, the company is not profitable yet and reported a net loss of $27.2 million in Q3 2025.
🚀 Strategic Leap
The biggest story this past year has been SRFM’s laser focus on two activities to help fortify the company’s position. They are:
(1) AI Integration.
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SFRM has entered into a 5-year exclusive agreement with $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$.
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As of August 2025, PLTR holds nearly a 20% stake in SRFM.
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SRFM is using PLTR's Foundry and AIP to optimize flight paths and crew scheduling, opening doors to serving (i) enterprise clients, (ii) aircraft manufacturers, and (iii) the US - Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
(2) Financial Deleveraging.
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CFO Oliver Reeves has utilized $74 million of $100 million strategic deal to reduce company’s debt by $52 million through repayments / conversions.
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Doing so reduce interest expenses by $5.5 million, improving bottom line immediately.
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Remaining $26 million is dedicated to pushing SurfOS development to further improve operational efficiency.
As of 24 Dec 2025
📉 The Technical Picture.
As of December 2025, the technical indicators suggest a "Spring" is being coiled:
Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
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The stock is testing its 20-day SMA ($2.10).
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While still below the 50-day ($3.00) and 200-day ($3.52) averages, its MACD turned positive on 02 Dec 2025, a signal that has preceded gains in 82% of past instances.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
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The RSI sits at 42.97 (neutral), while H2 2025 volume has spiked, indicating institutional accumulation while retail sentiment remains low.
SRFM past 3 months
Chart Formation:
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The chart is forming a classic Falling Wedge, a bullish reversal pattern that suggests selling pressure is exhausted. (see above)
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A break above the $2.60 resistance (on high trading volume) could trigger a rally toward the $4.00 - $5.50 range.
🔮 2026 Guidance.
With a stronger financial position and SurfOS ready to launch, SRFM has revised their 2025 revenue forecast upwards to at least $105 million.
For 2026, plans are aggressive: commercializing BrokerOS, OperatorOS, and OwnerOS, introducing tech-enabled routes, and expanding capacity with 4 more Caravans (small aircrafts).
🎯 Rating & Price Target.
Wall Street's consensus is a "Moderate Buy" with 3 covering analysts:
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Average Price Target: if stock price reaches $7.75, it would be a +263.85% increase from current price of $2.13 per share.
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High Target: Analysts forecast a high of $12.00, suggesting the stock could surge by over 463% in 2026.
Why PLTR Got Involved ?
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PLTR does not typically invest in small-cap airlines.
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Their 19.99% stake (as of mid-2025) isn't just a passive investment; it's a strategic bet on dominating the "operating system" of regional aviation.
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They have been accepting SRFM stock as payment, essentially "betting their own paycheck" on SRFM's future.
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Since integrating PLTR’s AIP (AI Platform) and Foundry, SRFM has already seen a +25% increase in revenue per trip in its on-demand division, proving that AI can make fragmented industries profitable.
Final Thoughts
SRFM is not for the faint-hearted, it requires a long-term horizon and a high-risk tolerance.
If it is able to successfully pivot into industry-recognized Saas company (where P/S ratio often exceed 5x - 10x), it could see a valuation shift and triggers a 'multiplier effect' on its stock price.
By moving past its penny stock status, it allows mutual and pension funds to invest in the company.
With 2025 revenue forecast raised to at least $105 million and commercial launches of BrokerOS, OperatorOS, and OwnerOS imminent, SRFM is a calculated investment in the coming year.
Not "bad" for a few days' work - right !
Bottom Line for SRFM (in 2026) is straight forward — turn flying into a math problem that PLTR’s AI has already solved. Do you buy it ?
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Do you think SRFM will succeed as an aviation wonder in 2026, as forecasted by Motley ’?
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Do you think PLTR AI-agent will be the catalyst to propel SRFM further into profit and investors’ radar ?
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