How to bet on a reversal after Tesla's continuous decline?

OptionsAura
01-05

$Tesla (TSLA) $It opened higher last Friday, but turned down quickly during the session. The stock price of Tesla (TSLA) has been weak in the past two weeks (2025-12-22 to 2026-01-05), with a cumulative decline of 10.4%, mainly driven by factors such as lower-than-expected delivery volume, intensified competition, and negative market sentiment.

Model 3/Y deliveries in the fourth quarter were 406,585, compared with market expectations of 421,796. Automobile production in the fourth quarter was 434,358 units, compared with market expectations of 470,780 units; Model 3/Y production was 422,652 units, compared with market expectations of 452,494 units. For the full year of 2025, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, compared with 1.79 million in 2024.

The numbers raise questions about whether Tesla can stabilise its core auto business after two consecutive years of declining sales, though the company is turning to future projects like robots and self-driving cars to justify its high valuation. Analysts say the biggest pressure on Tesla in 2025 comes from North America and Europe, where competition has increased, and the company also faced negative brand reactions earlier this year related to Musk's political rhetoric.

Tesla Bull Put Spread Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors Build a On Tesla (TSLA) OptionsBull Put Spread strategy.This strategy sells the higher strike price Put while buying the lower strike price PutConstitute, belonging toA long strategy with limited risk and limited return

The core objectives are:

  • In judging TSLAThere is a high probability that it will not fall below $425 at maturityUnder the premise of

  • By selling the Put spreadOne-time collection of net premium

  • While using Buy Put to hedge against extreme downside risks

(1) Sell at a higher execution price Put (main source of income)

  • Sell strike priceK ₂ = 425Put, charge premium$7.75

This Put is closer to the current stock price and is the main source of premium for this strategy. As long as the TSLA expiration price≥ $425, the option will lapse completely.

(2) Buy a lower execution price Put (risk protection)

  • Buy Strike PriceK ₁ = 420Put, Pay premium$6.20

This Put is used to limit the maximum loss in the event of a sharp decline in TSLA, capping the strategy risk.

(3) Put-side net income (per share)

Net premium = Sell Put − Buy Put

= 7.75 − 6.20 =$1.55/share

Initial net income

Since 1 lot of options = 100 shares:

  • Net premium (per share): $1.55

  • Initial net income (per contract):

= 1.55 × 100 =$155/contract

This is also the bull market bearish spread strategyMaximum potential profit

3. Maximum profit

When TSLA Expiration Price≥ $425Time:

  • Both 420 Put and 425 Put are out of the price

  • Both options go to zero

Maximum profit:

  • Per share:$1.55

  • Per contract:$155

4. Maximum loss

The largest loss occurs whenPut spread fully triggeredScenario, that is, TSLA fell sharply.

Strike spread width: = 425 − 420 =$5

Maximum loss (per share): = Strike spread − Net premium = 5 − 1.55 =$3.45/Share

Maximum loss (per contract): = 3.45 × 100 =$345/contract

Conditions of occurrence:

  • TSLA Expiration Price≤ $420

5. Break-even point

There is only one break-even point for bull put spreads:

Breakeven Price = Sell Put Strike Price − Net premium

= 425 − 1.55 =$423.45

Maturity judgment rules:

  • TSLA > $423.45→ Earnings for investors

  • TSLA = $423.45→ No profit, no loss

  • TSLA < $423.45→ Investor losses

6. Risk and return characteristics

  • Maximum benefit: $155/contract (limited)

  • Maximum loss: $345/contract (limited)

  • Profit-loss ratio: Gain: Loss ≈ 155: 345 ≈1: 2.23

Strategy Characteristics

  • Bullish strategy, the core assumption isThe stock price did not fall sharply

  • Receive time value by selling Put

  • The maximum risk and maximum return can be clarified when opening a position

  • The requirement for direction judgment is moderate, but it does not need to rise strongly

Applicable situations

When investors judge:

  • Tesla short-termShock or moderate rise

  • Before expirationBreak below $425 unlikely

  • At the same time, we hope to obtain premium benefits on the premise of clarifying the maximum risk

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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