Just added x1 Adobe (ADBE) at $328.75.
📉 The Setup: Technical & Fundamental Fusion
We aren't just buying a name; we are buying a massive valuation disconnect.
P/E Compression: ADBE is currently trading at a normalized P/E of ~16x–20x. Compare that to its 5-year average of 40x! We are seeing the lowest multiples since 2012. 🤯
Retesting Multi-Year Support: The $325–$330 range is a "iron floor" zone. We've seen heavy institutional buying at these levels historically. By sniping this at $328.75, I feel like it is entering right at the point where the risk/reward ratio is heavily skewed in our favor.
Oversold Signals: The stock is down over 20% in the last year, largely due to "AI fatigue" fears.
🚀 The Catalyst: The AI Moat is Real
Market skeptics are questioning Adobe's monetization, but they are missing the forest for the trees:
Firefly Integration: Adobe isn't just "adding" AI; they are weaving Firefly into the bedrock of the Creative Cloud. Generative credit consumption is up 3x quarter-over-quarter.
SaaS Moat: With a gross margin of nearly 90% and an 11% growth target in ARR for 2026, the cash-flow machine is far from broken.
Enterprise Sticky-ness: Figma and Canva are great for amateurs, but professionals live in the Adobe ecosystem. That moat is wider than people think.
💡 Final Verdict
With a median analyst target sitting above $500, the upside potential here is relatively big compared to the downside at these levels.
Will slowly DCA Long ADBE into my long term portfolio whenever I see any chance 📈
Trade Safe, Tiger Friends! [666]
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