(1) The single most important

(1) The single most important variable for crypto in the next year is the 2026 US Midterm Elections and the resulting fate of the CLARITY Act

(2) MSTR is undervalued because its massive Bitcoin treasury and recent MSCI inclusion reprieve offer unique leveraged exposure to an eventual supply crunch whereas MSTR is overvalued because its high debt-to-equity ratio and premium over net asset value make it dangerously vulnerable to political gridlock and Bitcoin price corrections

@Tiger_comments：MSTR Undervalued or NOT? Ray Dalio Said Crypto Policy Window May Be Less Than One Year

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With MSCI’s reversal, does MSTR regain its appeal for institutional portfolios?\n2. If Bitcoin pushes toward $150K, is current crypto exposure still underpriced?\n3. Looking ahead to 2026, do you favor Bitcoin proxies like MSTR, spot ETFs, or miners?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82c0813ec292001dc3c08b80fb6bb357"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9be2865a719815f496f2d7df33fd9076","width":"768","height":"1376"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9be2865a719815f496f2d7df33fd9076"}],"title":"MSTR Undervalued or NOT? Ray Dalio Said Crypto Policy Window May Be Less Than One Year","html":"<html><head></head><body>Global index provider MSCI announced it will maintain its current treatment of so-called “crypto treasury companies.” This means firms like <a data-mention-id=\"MSTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Strategy\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$Strategy(MSTR)$</a> — which hold Bitcoin as a core asset — are not being removed from major indexes, for now.On the news, MSTR rebounded 6% this week. Some investors now argue: MSTR may already be near its downside floor.However, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that crypto is being repriced by U.S. political cycles.<img alt=\"output0.png\" title=\"output0.png\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9be2865a719815f496f2d7df33fd9076\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"1376\">output0.png<h2 id=\"id_3819172763\">Is Crypto Running Out of Time?</h2>2026 U.S. midterm elections are approaching. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 79% probability that Democrats regain the House in 2026If that happens, today’s pro-crypto policy momentum could fade quickly.The most important variable is the CLARITY Act, which would define:Crypto market structure; Exchange regulation; Institutional legitimacy for digital assetsPolitical gridlock could delay it until 2027 or later. Even now, policy execution is not frictionless. Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis who has also announced she will not seek re-election in 2026.<h2 id=\"id_4015624763\">Another Shift: The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Has Broken</h2>For the first time in 14 years, Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year halving cycle failed to repeat.<ul style=\"\"><li>The year after the 2024 halving did not continue higher</li><li>2025 closed lower — unprecedented in prior cycles</li></ul>This does not imply structural weakness. It reflects a regime change:Bitcoin has shifted from a supply-shock-driven asset to a liquidity-sensitive, macro-driven asset.Today, BTC responds more to: dollar liquidity &amp; real rates, ETF flows, institutional allocation and global economic cyclesLeave your comments to win tiger coins!<ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li>“The single most important variable for crypto in the next year is ____.”</li><li>MSTR is undervalued/overvalued.</li></ol></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Global index provider MSCI announced it will maintain its current treatment of so-called “crypto treasury companies.” This means firms like <a data-mention-id=\"MSTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Strategy\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$Strategy(MSTR)$</a> — which hold Bitcoin as a core asset — are not being removed from major indexes, for now.On the news, MSTR rebounded 6% this week. Some investors now argue: MSTR may already be near its downside floor.However, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that crypto is being repriced by U.S. political cycles.<img alt=\"output0.png\" title=\"output0.png\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9be2865a719815f496f2d7df33fd9076\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"1376\">output0.png<h2 id=\"id_3819172763\">Is Crypto Running Out of Time?</h2>2026 U.S. midterm elections are approaching. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 79% probability that Democrats regain the House in 2026If that happens, today’s pro-crypto policy momentum could fade quickly.The most important variable is the CLARITY Act, which would define:Crypto market structure; Exchange regulation; Institutional legitimacy for digital assetsPolitical gridlock could delay it until 2027 or later. Even now, policy execution is not frictionless. Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis who has also announced she will not seek re-election in 2026.<h2 id=\"id_4015624763\">Another Shift: The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Has Broken</h2>For the first time in 14 years, Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year halving cycle failed to repeat.<ul style=\"\"><li>The year after the 2024 halving did not continue higher</li><li>2025 closed lower — unprecedented in prior cycles</li></ul>This does not imply structural weakness. It reflects a regime change:Bitcoin has shifted from a supply-shock-driven asset to a liquidity-sensitive, macro-driven asset.Today, BTC responds more to: dollar liquidity &amp; real rates, ETF flows, institutional allocation and global economic cyclesLeave your comments to win tiger coins!<ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li>“The single most important variable for crypto in the next year is ____.”</li><li>MSTR is undervalued/overvalued.</li></ol></body></html>","text":"Global index provider MSCI announced it will maintain its current treatment of so-called “crypto treasury companies.” This means firms like $Strategy(MSTR)$ — which hold Bitcoin as a core asset — are not being removed from major indexes, for now. On the news, MSTR rebounded 6% this week. Some investors now argue: MSTR may already be near its downside floor. However, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that crypto is being repriced by U.S. political cycles. output0.png Is Crypto Running Out of Time? 2026 U.S. midterm elections are approaching. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 79% probability that Democrats regain the House in 2026 If that happens, today’s pro-crypto policy momentum could fade quickly. The most important variable is the CLARITY Act, which would define: Crypto market structure; Exchange regulation; Institutional legitimacy for digital assets Political gridlock could delay it until 2027 or later. Even now, policy execution is not frictionless. Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis who has also announced she will not seek re-election in 2026. Another Shift: The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Has Broken For the first time in 14 years, Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year halving cycle failed to repeat. The year after the 2024 halving did not continue higher 2025 closed lower — unprecedented in prior cycles This does not imply structural weakness. It reflects a regime change: Bitcoin has shifted from a supply-shock-driven asset to a liquidity-sensitive, macro-driven asset. Today, BTC responds more to: dollar liquidity & real rates, ETF flows, institutional allocation and global economic cycles Leave your comments to win tiger coins! “The single most important variable for crypto in the next year is ____.” MSTR is undervalued/overvalued.","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/519769309712632","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["MSTR"],"verified":2,"subType":2,"readableState":1,"subTypeObject":{"tweetId":519769309712632,"totalAmount":500,"balance":500,"end":false,"deadline":1769011435970,"remainingNumber":100},"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":true,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1502,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["09008","IBIT","03042","03008","BTC.USD.CC","03439","BTC.USD.HKCC","09439"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":405,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/520693688058032"}