[Miser]  [Miser]  

Key signals:

• SanDisk (SNDK): +5% overnight

• Western Digital (WDC): +3%+

• Semiconductor equipment stocks (KLA, Applied Materials, Lam Research) also moving up

• The driver is accelerating AI-driven demand, not speculation

This is important because multiple parts of the semiconductor supply chain are moving together.

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Is this truly a “supercycle”?

My view: Yes – and we’re likely in the early-to-mid stage, not the end

Why this move looks real

1️⃣ AI demand is structurally storage-heavy

AI doesn’t just consume GPUs:

• High-bandwidth memory (HBM)

• Enterprise SSDs

• Data-center NAND & DRAM

In practice:

Every 1× increase in AI compute often drives ~1.5–2× growth in storage demand

This is a structural trend, not a one-quarter spike.

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2️⃣ Storage stocks leading is historically correct

In past semiconductor cycles:

• Memory (DRAM / NAND) is usually the first to bottom

• And often delivers the strongest early gains

Why?

• Inventory cycles are extreme

• Supply discipline is much tighter this time

So SNDK / WDC / MU breaking out first is a healthy signal, not a warning sign.

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3️⃣ Equipment stocks confirming the move matters

If this were a short-term trade:

• Storage stocks would rise

• Equipment stocks would lag

But instead:

• KLA / AMAT / LRCX are also advancing

This indicates:

• Capital expenditure is restarting

• The cycle likely has 12–24 months of runway

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Implications for Micron (MU)

You’ll notice Micron is also up in the image.

• MU is a direct AI memory beneficiary (DRAM + HBM)

• In a real supercycle:

• MU is not the end of the move — it’s part of the core trend

Short-term pullbacks are normal, but they don’t invalidate the cycle.

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Risks to be aware of (not immediate)

This isn’t risk-free, but none of these are near-term threats:

1. Possible oversupply in late 2026

2. AI capex slowdown (no current evidence)

3. Valuation compression rather than demand collapse

These are 6–12+ months out, not current concerns.

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Bottom line (simple takeaway)

This looks like a structural AI + storage supercycle.

Record highs in SNDK and WDC are confirmation signals, not exhaustion signs.

We are more likely in the early-to-middle phase than at the peak.