I realize $TSLA stock does not

I realize $TSLA stock does not follow normal growth stock norms, and earnings revisions and valuation matter less, but at some point investors will demand that TSLA earnings revisions turn positive. Both 2026 and 2030 earnings revisions (the latter includes analysts’ Robotaxi and Optimus estimates) are negative. With negative earnings revisions, all of TSLA’s recent outperformance is due to multiple expansion (from 60x one-year forward EPS in Jan 2024 to 196x today). TSLA future earnings growth remains robust, with 2026-2030 expected growth of +40% CAGR, but it’s still hard to make the valuation math work at a 2026 P/E of 196x (4.9x forward PEG).

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Comments

gogogoFor
01-22 11:23
gogogoFor
The P/E's gone bonkers, mate. Growth better smash it to justify! [惊讶]
Cory2
01-22 16:00
Cory2
Omg - why don't I sell when Cathie does?! (Agrhhh)!

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Both 2026 and 2030 earnings revisions (the latter includes analysts’ Robotaxi and Optimus estimates) are negative. With negative earnings revisions, all of TSLA’s recent outperformance is due to multiple expansion (from 60x one-year forward EPS in Jan 2024 to 196x today). TSLA future earnings growth remains robust, with 2026-2030 expected growth of +40% CAGR, but it’s still hard to make the valuation math work at a 2026 P/E of 196x (4.9x forward PEG).</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>I realize $TSLA stock does not follow normal growth stock norms, and earnings revisions and valuation matter less, but at some point investors will demand that TSLA earnings revisions turn positive. Both 2026 and 2030 earnings revisions (the latter includes analysts’ Robotaxi and Optimus estimates) are negative. With negative earnings revisions, all of TSLA’s recent outperformance is due to multiple expansion (from 60x one-year forward EPS in Jan 2024 to 196x today). 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Growth better smash it to justify! [惊讶]","text":"The P/E's gone bonkers, mate. Growth better smash it to justify! [惊讶]","html":"The P/E's gone bonkers, mate. Growth better smash it to justify! [惊讶]","likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":524463714939608,"commentId":"524463714939608","gmtCreate":1769068829136,"gmtModify":1769068833892,"authorId":4120143033783952,"author":{"id":4120143033783952,"idStr":"4120143033783952","authorId":4120143033783952,"name":"Cory2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/35a1fd8c7e3fece7e78a379732eda476","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.58%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":524369756988944,"objectIdStr":"524369756988944","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Omg - why don't I sell when Cathie does?! 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