Lanceljx
01-31

The results strongly suggest the storage supercycle is not finished, but the easy phase is likely behind us.


Do the beats signal early innings?

They confirm that demand is still accelerating, particularly from AI training, inference, and data-centre refresh cycles. What matters more than the headline beat is the forward guide. SanDisk’s Q3 outlook implies demand visibility well beyond a one-quarter burst, while Western Digital’s margin expansion shows pricing power is still improving. This looks less like a peak and more like the mid-cycle acceleration phase, though volatility will rise as expectations reset higher.


SanDisk vs Western Digital


SanDisk remains the higher-beta, higher-upside play. Its pure exposure to NAND and AI-driven storage demand means earnings revisions can still chase price. However, after a near-vertical move, drawdowns will be sharp when momentum pauses.


Western Digital offers a cleaner rerating story. Cash flow is improving, balance-sheet risk is falling, and margins are recovering from depressed levels. Upside may be less explosive, but downside risk is more contained.



Add now or wait?

I would not chase strength here. Storage is now a core AI infrastructure trade, but after after-hours spikes of this magnitude, pullbacks are normal. The better approach is staged exposure: keep a core position, add selectively on consolidation or broad-market weakness, and avoid sizing as if volatility has disappeared.


Bottom line

The supercycle is intact. SanDisk offers torque, Western Digital offers durability. Timing, not thesis, is now the dominant risk.

Citi Lifts SanDisk to $750: Is the AI Trade Crowded?
AI-driven compute demand continues to propel the storage cycle, with SanDisk emerging as a key pure-play gauge for NAND and SSD momentum after its spinoff. On Monday, Citigroup raised SanDisk’s target price from $490 to $750, citing margin resilience and a 64% QoQ surge in data-center revenue as hyperscaler demand accelerates. Shares jumped 15.4%, lifting peers Micron Technology (+5.5%) and Western Digital (+6.1%). With targets racing higher, is AI storage still under-owned—or nearing peak expectations? Would you chase or take profits now?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • PhoebeReade
    02-02 10:26
    PhoebeReade
    Sandisk for upside, WDC safer. Staged entry beats chasing. [看涨]
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