CardinalSins
02-12 19:28

This feels less about “Clawdbot killing SaaS” and more about valuation compression meeting higher quality thresholds.

Cloudflare just printed 33% YoY growth with expanding FCF margins — that’s not a broken business. The issue is when a stock trades at premium multiples, even small changes in growth durability or AI monetization timelines can trigger multiple resets.

AppLovin’s dip shows how fragile sentiment is when expectations are perfection. In this environment, the market is demanding:

• Durable net retention

• Clear AI monetization (not just AI narrative)

• Expanding operating leverage

• Real free cash flow

The golden dip vs value trap question comes down to one thing: Is growth decelerating structurally or just normalizing after a hype cycle?

If SaaS can pair AI adoption with margin expansion, this is rotation — not collapse. If AI becomes margin-dilutive, then the multiple compression isn’t done.

The market isn’t killing SaaS. It’s repricing certainty.

Software-mageddon: Is the Dip in AppLovin and Palantir a Buy?
AppLovin reported Q4 revenue of $1.658 billion, up 66% YoY, with net income rising 84% to $1.102 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased 82% year over year. Applovin (APP) delivered strong earnings, pushing back against the “software apocalypse” narrative sparked by Anthropic’s AI agents. Yet despite solid fundamentals, APP plunged 20% post-earnings. Apollo’s Co-President warns the software industry is entering an “extremely violent” tech cycle, where valuations reset and markets aggressively separate winners from losers. Is APP & PLTR a mispriced AI platform caught in panic selling?
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