$Medtronic PLC(MDT)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, before the market opens.
The company is currently in a "turnaround" phase, shifting from a slow-moving legacy giant to a more innovative, agile competitor. After a strong Q2 beat and raise, the market is looking for evidence that this momentum is sustainable.
Earnings Expectations & Key Metrics
Analysts expect a slight year-over-year dip in earnings despite a healthy jump in revenue.
1. Cardiovascular Strength (The Growth Engine)
This is the most critical segment to watch. In Q2, Cardiac Ablation grew a massive 71%. Look for continued adoption of the Affera Sphere-9 (pulsed field ablation) and the Evolut FX+ TAVR system. If cardiovascular growth exceeds 10%, it will likely offset any weakness elsewhere.
2. Diabetes Recovery & Divestiture News
Medtronic has been regaining ground with its MiniMed 780G system. Investors will watch for updates on the pending separation of the diabetes business into a standalone entity (expected by the end of 2026). Higher margins are expected once this lower-margin, direct-to-consumer unit is carved out.
3. Surgical Robotics (Hugo™ System)
While still early, the uptake of the Hugo RAS system in the U.S. is the "wildcard" for long-term growth. Any commentary on increasing hospital placements or new urologic procedure volume will be seen as a major positive.
Medtronic (MDT) reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on November 18, 2025. The quarter was widely characterized as a "pivot point" where the company’s long-promised innovation pipeline finally began to translate into significant financial outperformance.
Q2 2026 Financial Summary
Medtronic delivered a "beat and raise" quarter, driven largely by its cardiovascular division.
Revenue: $8.96 billion (up 6.6% as reported; 5.5% organic), exceeding the $8.87 billion estimate.
Adjusted EPS: $1.36, beating the $1.31 consensus by $0.05.
Segment Highlights:
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Cardiovascular: Grew 10.8%, the strongest performance in over a decade (ex-pandemic).
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Cardiac Ablation (PFA): A massive 71% increase globally (128% in the U.S.) due to the rapid adoption of the Affera Sphere-9 system.
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Diabetes: Grew 10.3%, showing a strong recovery through the MiniMed 780G system and pre-sales for new sensors.
Margins: Adjusted gross margin improved 70 basis points to 65.9%, as pricing power and cost efficiencies finally began to offset inflation and supply chain costs.
The "Lesson Learnt" from Guidance
When Medtronic raised its full-year 2026 guidance—adjusting organic revenue growth to 5.5% and EPS to $5.62–$5.66—investors took away three specific lessons:
1. The "Underpromise and Overdeliver" Era is Here
Historically, Medtronic had a reputation for setting aggressive goals and then hitting "one-off" hurdles (supply chain, regulatory delays). In Q2, management proved they are now setting conservative floors. By beating the midpoint of their own guidance by 75 basis points, they demonstrated a new level of operational predictability that the market had been craving.
2. High-Growth Tech is Cannibalizing Legacy Tech (And that's Good)
The 71% growth in Pulsed Field Ablation (PFA) came at the expense of their own legacy Cryoablation business (which fell 40%). The lesson for investors is that Medtronic is no longer afraid to "eat its own lunch" to stay ahead. This shift toward higher-margin, next-gen technology is essential for the stock to move from a "Value" trap to a "Growth" story.
3. Management is Prioritizing Reinvestment over "Bottom-Line Only"
Despite the EPS beat, management chose to aggressively increase R&D spending (up 8.9%) and sales/marketing.
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The Lesson: They aren't just trying to "make the quarter." They are capitalizing on a narrow window of opportunity to capture market share in Renal Denervation (Symplicity) and Robotics (Hugo) while their competitors are still catching up.
Looking Forward to Q3 2026
The Q2 report set a high bar. The market now expects that "acceleration" to continue, particularly in the U.S. where they recently doubled their installed base of mapping systems—a leading indicator for future catheter sales.
Medtronic (MDT) Price Target
Based on 28 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Medtronic in the last 3 months. The average price target is $110.98 with a high forecast of $121.00 and a low forecast of $92.00. The average price target represents a 10.01% change from the last price of $100.88.
Short-Term Trading Analysis
Trading MDT post-earnings requires caution, as the stock has a history of "selling the news" even on good results.
Historical Reaction: In the last four quarters, MDT has beaten EPS estimates every time. However, the price reaction is mixed:
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Q2 2026: Stock rose +4.7% on a beat and raise.
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Q4 2025: Stock fell -6.2% despite decent numbers.
The "Whisper" Number: Because Medtronic raised its full-year guidance in November to $5.62 – $5.66, a "meet" may not be enough. Traders should look for an EPS beat of at least $0.03 ($1.37 or higher) to spark a sustained rally.
Technical Setup: MDT has been hovering around its 52-week high (~$106). It recently cleared its 200-day moving average ($96.22), which now acts as a strong support level.
Trading Tip: If the stock dips toward $98-$100 on a "good but not great" report, it may represent a "buy the dip" opportunity for a swing trade back toward the $111 analyst consensus target.
Potential Risks
Margin Compression: High R&D spending on AI and robotics could squeeze margins more than expected.
GLP-1 Impact: While the "weight-loss drug" fear has cooled, any management commentary suggesting a slowdown in elective surgeries (like bariatric) could trigger a temporary sell-off.
Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Though investors might be expecting the “underpromise and overdeliver” era from MDT, but the recent stock trading show that it is trying to break out from the 26-EMA and make an upside movement, or even for a bullish upside continuation.
So what might happen next would be the possibility of a short rally following a “beat and raise”, and MDT continue with the “underpromise and overdeliver” era, then we could see MDT going back to its previous highs, and that would really need MDT to provide a significant strong earnings and also guidance.
Summary
Medtronic (MDT) is set to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, before the market opens. Following a strong Q2 "beat and raise," investors are looking for proof that the company’s pivot toward high-growth technology is gaining permanent traction.
The Numbers to Watch
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Adjusted EPS: Analysts expect $1.33, representing a 4.3% decrease year-over-year.
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Revenue: Forecasted at $8.90 billion, a healthy 7.3% increase year-over-year.
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FY2026 Guidance: The current floor is set at $5.62 – $5.66 EPS. Any upward revision here would be a major bullish signal.
Key Performance Indicators
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Cardiovascular Momentum: This is the primary growth engine. The market expects segment revenue of $3.37 billion (+10.8% YoY). Focus will be on the Affera Sphere-9 (Pulsed Field Ablation) and Evolut FX+ TAVR system. If cardiovascular growth stays in double digits, it validates Medtronic’s innovation-led recovery.
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Diabetes Recovery: Expected revenue of $522.5 million (ROW) and growth of roughly 11.5%. With recent FDA clearances and Medicare expansion for the MiniMed 780G, investors want to see if Medtronic can continue clawing back market share from competitors.
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Margin Expansion: Despite higher R&D spend, investors are watching for continued improvement in gross margins (targeted above 65.9%) as supply chain headwinds fade.
Market Sentiment & Technicals
The stock currently holds a "Moderate Buy" consensus with a target price of approximately $111. Technically, the stock is trading near $101, comfortably above its 200-day moving average of $96.22.
While Medtronic has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters, its post-earnings price action has been mixed. A "meet" may result in a flat response; a clear beat (EPS > $1.36) paired with a guidance raise is likely required to break the current 52-week high of $106.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MDT would continue to provide the “underpromise and overdeliver” era in its upcoming earnings release.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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