The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industr

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite seem to be floating somewhere in the clouds. War with Iran is apparently just a minor inconvenience. Inflation? Job losses? Oil spiking? Weak payroll numbers? Never mind — the market has decided none of that matters.

Even the famous “Magnificent 7” tech stocks have slipped from their highs, yet the indices are still partying as if everything is perfectly fine.

Oil is rising, jobs are weakening, and economists are quietly whispering about stagflation — but the apparent strategy remains: close your eyes, buy the dip, and hope the spreadsheet keeps going up.

Meanwhile, the next interest-rate cut might not arrive until around 2027 (according to expectations tracked by CME Group).

The level of complacency is remarkable. If denial were an asset class, Wall Street would already be at all-time highs.

U.S. Economic Outlook Cut by Goldman over the Iran War - and the Fear Goes Beyond Oil

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":542008137269304,"tweetId":"542008137269304","gmtCreate":1773353866966,"gmtModify":1773366121507,"author":{"id":4131703342800552,"idStr":"4131703342800552","authorId":4131703342800552,"authorIdStr":"4131703342800552","name":"neo26000","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11d50ec0d6202770a8629aa7f06a5d4f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.08","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":260,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>The S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite seem to be floating somewhere in the clouds. War with Iran is apparently just a minor inconvenience. Inflation? Job losses? Oil spiking? Weak payroll numbers? Never mind — the market has decided none of that matters.</p>\n<p>Even the famous “Magnificent 7” tech stocks have slipped from their highs, yet the indices are still partying as if everything is perfectly fine.</p>\n<p>Oil is rising, jobs are weakening, and economists are quietly whispering about stagflation — but the apparent strategy remains: close your eyes, buy the dip, and hope the spreadsheet keeps going up.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the next interest-rate cut might not arrive until around 2027 (according to expectations tracked by CME Group).</p>\n<p>The level of complacency is remarkable. If denial were an asset class, Wall Street would already be at all-time highs.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>The S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite seem to be floating somewhere in the clouds. War with Iran is apparently just a minor inconvenience. Inflation? Job losses? Oil spiking? Weak payroll numbers? Never mind — the market has decided none of that matters.</p>\n<p>Even the famous “Magnificent 7” tech stocks have slipped from their highs, yet the indices are still partying as if everything is perfectly fine.</p>\n<p>Oil is rising, jobs are weakening, and economists are quietly whispering about stagflation — but the apparent strategy remains: close your eyes, buy the dip, and hope the spreadsheet keeps going up.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the next interest-rate cut might not arrive until around 2027 (according to expectations tracked by CME Group).</p>\n<p>The level of complacency is remarkable. If denial were an asset class, Wall Street would already be at all-time highs.</p></body></html>","text":"The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite seem to be floating somewhere in the clouds. War with Iran is apparently just a minor inconvenience. Inflation? Job losses? Oil spiking? Weak payroll numbers? Never mind — the market has decided none of that matters. Even the famous “Magnificent 7” tech stocks have slipped from their highs, yet the indices are still partying as if everything is perfectly fine. Oil is rising, jobs are weakening, and economists are quietly whispering about stagflation — but the apparent strategy remains: close your eyes, buy the dip, and hope the spreadsheet keeps going up. Meanwhile, the next interest-rate cut might not arrive until around 2027 (according to expectations tracked by CME Group). The level of complacency is remarkable. If denial were an asset class, Wall Street would already be at all-time highs.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/542008137269304","repostId":2618137710,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2618137710","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1773326662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2618137710?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-03-12 22:44","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"U.S. Economic Outlook Cut by Goldman over the Iran War - and the Fear Goes Beyond Oil","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618137710","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Every 10% rise in oil increases inflation by two-tenths, Goldman calculates.Things aren't looking so great on the economic front 12 days into the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Not only did oil prices...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Every 10% rise in oil increases inflation by two-tenths, Goldman calculates.</p><p>Things aren&#39;t looking so great on the economic front 12 days into the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Not only did oil prices again touch triple-digit levels, there are worries about supplies of everything from fertilizer to helium, important not just for party balloons, but semiconductor production.</p><p>Goldman Sachs economists Manuel Abecasis and David Mericle in a new research note looked at the economic implications of the Iran war on the U.S. economy.</p><p>And, to be clear, the main risk really is oil. &#34;The main transmission channel from the war with Iran to the U.S. economy is the price of oil,&#34; they said. Goldman&#39;s oil team just raised their forecasts for the second time in little over a week, now expecting the Brent contract (BRN00) to average $98 for March and April - up 40% from the 2025 average.</p><p>Their rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% increase in oil boosts the inflation rate by 0.2 percentage points, and the core inflation rate by 0.04 points. Similarly, a sustained 10% rise in oil lowers GDP growth by a tenth, though that could be tempered depending on how domestic producers respond.</p><p>The impact of tighter financial conditions also weighs on the economy. For every 1 percentage point tightening in their financial conditions index, GDP growth is hurt by 1 point over the following year. So far, Goldman&#39;s financial conditions index has tightened by 0.2 percentage points.</p><p>But the economy can be impacted by more than just swings in financial markets. The Goldman team cite Federal Reserve research that higher geopolitical risk weighs on both hiring and capital expenditure. When the shocks to geopolitical risk and oil prices occur simultaneously -- like right now - the impact is twice as large. Higher geopolitical risk and oil prices also weigh on consumer confidence, although only briefly, the research finds.</p><p>Granted, there are some ameliorating factors too. The U.S. economy is less reliant on oil than it was during the supply shocks of the 1970s. The stock market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 SPX, is only down 1% this year, so there&#39;s no significant negative wealth effect, so far. The U.S. economy also is less sensitive to the most relevant chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping, which account for less than 5% of international trade.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6369d5b3703ca4f1eb8eb3bdc122cb60\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\"/></p><p>Putting it all together, here&#39;s the Goldman economic forecast.</p><p>Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index that the Fed favors, will reach 2.9% year-on-year in December, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the firm previously forecast (and well above the Fed&#39;s 2% target). Goldman&#39;s core inflation forecast also rose, by a more modest two-tenths of a point, to 2.4%. That will take the fourth-quarter GDP year-on-year forecast down by three-tenths, to 2.2%. The unemployment rate will peak in the fourth quarter, at 4.6%, and the risk of recession over the next 12 months is 25%, which the firm says is right in line with the Wall Street consensus.</p><p>It also means the Federal Reserve will be slower with rate cuts. The two cuts they forecast for June and September are now seen for September and December. That said, earlier cuts are still possible if the labor market weakens sooner, or more substantially, that they expect.</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Economic Outlook Cut by Goldman over the Iran War - and the Fear Goes Beyond Oil</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Economic Outlook Cut by Goldman over the Iran War - and the Fear Goes Beyond Oil\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-12 22:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Every 10% rise in oil increases inflation by two-tenths, Goldman calculates.</p><p>Things aren&#39;t looking so great on the economic front 12 days into the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Not only did oil prices again touch triple-digit levels, there are worries about supplies of everything from fertilizer to helium, important not just for party balloons, but semiconductor production.</p><p>Goldman Sachs economists Manuel Abecasis and David Mericle in a new research note looked at the economic implications of the Iran war on the U.S. economy.</p><p>And, to be clear, the main risk really is oil. &#34;The main transmission channel from the war with Iran to the U.S. economy is the price of oil,&#34; they said. Goldman&#39;s oil team just raised their forecasts for the second time in little over a week, now expecting the Brent contract (BRN00) to average $98 for March and April - up 40% from the 2025 average.</p><p>Their rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% increase in oil boosts the inflation rate by 0.2 percentage points, and the core inflation rate by 0.04 points. Similarly, a sustained 10% rise in oil lowers GDP growth by a tenth, though that could be tempered depending on how domestic producers respond.</p><p>The impact of tighter financial conditions also weighs on the economy. For every 1 percentage point tightening in their financial conditions index, GDP growth is hurt by 1 point over the following year. So far, Goldman&#39;s financial conditions index has tightened by 0.2 percentage points.</p><p>But the economy can be impacted by more than just swings in financial markets. The Goldman team cite Federal Reserve research that higher geopolitical risk weighs on both hiring and capital expenditure. When the shocks to geopolitical risk and oil prices occur simultaneously -- like right now - the impact is twice as large. Higher geopolitical risk and oil prices also weigh on consumer confidence, although only briefly, the research finds.</p><p>Granted, there are some ameliorating factors too. The U.S. economy is less reliant on oil than it was during the supply shocks of the 1970s. The stock market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 SPX, is only down 1% this year, so there&#39;s no significant negative wealth effect, so far. The U.S. economy also is less sensitive to the most relevant chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping, which account for less than 5% of international trade.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6369d5b3703ca4f1eb8eb3bdc122cb60\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\"/></p><p>Putting it all together, here&#39;s the Goldman economic forecast.</p><p>Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index that the Fed favors, will reach 2.9% year-on-year in December, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the firm previously forecast (and well above the Fed&#39;s 2% target). Goldman&#39;s core inflation forecast also rose, by a more modest two-tenths of a point, to 2.4%. That will take the fourth-quarter GDP year-on-year forecast down by three-tenths, to 2.2%. The unemployment rate will peak in the fourth quarter, at 4.6%, and the risk of recession over the next 12 months is 25%, which the firm says is right in line with the Wall Street consensus.</p><p>It also means the Federal Reserve will be slower with rate cuts. The two cuts they forecast for June and September are now seen for September and December. That said, earlier cuts are still possible if the labor market weakens sooner, or more substantially, that they expect.</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4539":"次新股","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4543":"AI","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0345781412.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0630314457.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2095319765.USD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2210150020.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A SGD","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU2210149790.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A SGD-H","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU2317271919.USD":"BGF FUTURE CONSUMER \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SGXZ51526630.SGD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc SGD","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4023":"应用软件","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1633808545.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0472753341.HKD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU0345774391.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4093":"化肥与农用药剂","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","BK4566":"资本集团","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0345774631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0342679015.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY UNCONSTRAINED \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4604":"机器人概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU2380233275.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND WATER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2618137710","content_text":"Every 10% rise in oil increases inflation by two-tenths, Goldman calculates.Things aren't looking so great on the economic front 12 days into the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Not only did oil prices again touch triple-digit levels, there are worries about supplies of everything from fertilizer to helium, important not just for party balloons, but semiconductor production.Goldman Sachs economists Manuel Abecasis and David Mericle in a new research note looked at the economic implications of the Iran war on the U.S. economy.And, to be clear, the main risk really is oil. \"The main transmission channel from the war with Iran to the U.S. economy is the price of oil,\" they said. Goldman's oil team just raised their forecasts for the second time in little over a week, now expecting the Brent contract (BRN00) to average $98 for March and April - up 40% from the 2025 average.Their rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% increase in oil boosts the inflation rate by 0.2 percentage points, and the core inflation rate by 0.04 points. Similarly, a sustained 10% rise in oil lowers GDP growth by a tenth, though that could be tempered depending on how domestic producers respond.The impact of tighter financial conditions also weighs on the economy. For every 1 percentage point tightening in their financial conditions index, GDP growth is hurt by 1 point over the following year. So far, Goldman's financial conditions index has tightened by 0.2 percentage points.But the economy can be impacted by more than just swings in financial markets. The Goldman team cite Federal Reserve research that higher geopolitical risk weighs on both hiring and capital expenditure. When the shocks to geopolitical risk and oil prices occur simultaneously -- like right now - the impact is twice as large. Higher geopolitical risk and oil prices also weigh on consumer confidence, although only briefly, the research finds.Granted, there are some ameliorating factors too. The U.S. economy is less reliant on oil than it was during the supply shocks of the 1970s. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 SPX, is only down 1% this year, so there's no significant negative wealth effect, so far. The U.S. economy also is less sensitive to the most relevant chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping, which account for less than 5% of international trade.Putting it all together, here's the Goldman economic forecast.Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index that the Fed favors, will reach 2.9% year-on-year in December, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the firm previously forecast (and well above the Fed's 2% target). Goldman's core inflation forecast also rose, by a more modest two-tenths of a point, to 2.4%. That will take the fourth-quarter GDP year-on-year forecast down by three-tenths, to 2.2%. The unemployment rate will peak in the fourth quarter, at 4.6%, and the risk of recession over the next 12 months is 25%, which the firm says is right in line with the Wall Street consensus.It also means the Federal Reserve will be slower with rate cuts. The two cuts they forecast for June and September are now seen for September and December. That said, earlier cuts are still possible if the labor market weakens sooner, or more substantially, that they expect.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":728,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/542008137269304"}