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03-13 15:57

đŸ”„Software Stocks Crashed — But the Real Question Is: Which Ones Actually Deserve to Recover?

Over the past 12 months, software stocks have gone through one of the sharpest valuation resets in years.

Some of the biggest names in SaaS have lost 50% to nearly 80% of their market value.

$ADBE down ~50%

$CRM down ~50%

$NOW down ~54%

$DOCU down ~57%

$TEAM down ~76%

$MNDY down ~79%

Many investors are calling this the “SaaS Apocalypse.”

But when an entire sector sells off like this, I don’t start by asking what crashed.

I start by asking what still structurally matters.

Because historically, after every software downturn, two very different outcomes emerge:

Some companies never recover.

Others become the core platforms of the next decade.

And separating those two is where the real opportunity sits.

If we focus on the names you mentioned:

$CRWD

$PANW

$NOW

$CRM

$ACN

$IGV

They actually fall into three very different structural categories.

First: Cybersecurity platforms

$CRWD

$PANW

Security spending behaves differently from most software budgets.

Companies might delay upgrading tools, cut SaaS subscriptions, or consolidate vendors—but security spending rarely disappears.

If anything, cyber threats keep increasing as more infrastructure moves to the cloud.

CrowdStrike continues expanding its security platform across endpoints, identity, and cloud workloads.

Palo Alto Networks has been aggressively shifting toward a platform-based security model, trying to consolidate multiple security layers into a single ecosystem.

That makes this segment one of the most resilient parts of SaaS.

Second: Enterprise workflow infrastructure

$NOW

$CRM

ServiceNow has quietly become one of the most deeply embedded enterprise platforms in the world.

Once a company builds internal workflows on ServiceNow, ripping it out becomes extremely difficult.

Salesforce is a bit more complicated. Growth has slowed compared to its earlier years, but the company generates enormous free cash flow, and its position inside enterprise customer management systems remains very strong.

During periods when SaaS valuations compress, companies with strong cash generation and deep enterprise integration tend to stabilize first.

Third: Industry exposure or consulting leverage

$ACN

$IGV

Accenture isn’t a SaaS product company—it’s a consulting and digital transformation giant. Its performance depends heavily on enterprise IT spending cycles.

Meanwhile $IGV represents the entire software sector.

If someone believes the SaaS reset is mostly about valuation normalization rather than structural decline, buying the sector through an ETF can sometimes be the simplest approach.

But stepping back, the real filter for long-term SaaS winners usually comes down to three metrics:

Net revenue retention

Free cash flow margins

Platform expansion ability

The companies that win over the long run tend to score highly across all three.

Every major tech cycle leaves behind two groups:

Companies that were mostly valuation stories.

And companies that quietly become core infrastructure for the digital economy.

Right now, the market is forcing investors to decide which is which.

If you had to build a SaaS portfolio today, would you lean toward cybersecurity platforms like $CRWD and $PANW,

or enterprise workflow giants like $NOW and $CRM?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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