CapitaLand China Trust (CLCT) Divestment Gains Hiding Real SGX REIT Losses | 🦖EP1495

The Investing Iguana

CapitaLand China Trust (CLCT) Divestment Gains Hiding Real SGX REIT Losses | 🦖EP1495

The market sees a 6–7% China REIT yield; my spreadsheet sees a 40.7% gearing load, 2.8x interest cover, and a 2027 refinancing wall that will ask your dividend to pay the bill first. The quiet tax on your income isn’t in the DPU announcement, it’s in the spread between a 1.37% Singapore T‑Bill and what’s left after higher-for-longer rates, negative rental reversions and divestment “top-ups” pretending to be organic growth. My stance is simple: if a REIT can’t clear a 3.2% Forensic Floor with at least 1.5% real surplus, it’s not a Sanctuary, it’s a slow-moving wealth transfer.

For investors living through the 5,000-point STI era, this isn’t academic. You can lock in S$100,000 at 1.37% with zero drama, or you can take equity risk that doesn’t even beat a 4.7% forensic hurdle once you adjust for China concentration, refinancing risk and asset mis-pricing. I’d rather own a slightly lower headline yield with real cash flow and data-centre tailwinds than chase a fragile 6% under a weakening property cycle.

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/PZqiWfav4xM

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.substack.com/p/capitaland-china-trust-clct-divestment

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