Both the US and Iran are far from alignment on the terms of a ceasefire. And neither side seems willing to budge. So it’s hard to see how negotiations can succeed.

If a ceasefire doesn’t happen, that means the US would have to press on with attacks—and potentially send troops on the ground to eliminate the regime. The market wouldn’t like that. It could be a repeat nightmare of Iraq and Afghanistan, where the invasion took far longer and cost many times more than initially envisaged.

The US is already not in the strongest fiscal position. Spending billions more on a prolonged war would only increase debt further.

Plus, elevated oil prices have persisted for a month and look set to stay longer. The fear of inflation is creeping back.

the Magnificent 7 have lost $5.6 trillion in market cap from their peaks. Microsoft saw the largest decline in both magnitude and percentage—losing $1.55 trillion, a 31% drop from its peak. Microsoft has an additional worry: its core software business being disrupted by AI. Apple, on the other hand, was the least scathed—ironically because it’s the one that didn’t splurge on AI. Even so, all seven are down more than 10% from their peak market caps. Given their weightage in the index, it’s no surprise they’re dragging down the S&P 500.