Memory Sector Turbulence – Thesis Broken or Still Intact?

Short answer: The memory bull market is volatile, but not broken. However, expectations must be adjusted.

1. What actually caused the crash?

The selloff was driven by two fears:

1. TurboQuant reduces memory needed per AI inference

2. OpenAI cancelling large HBM / memory orders

The market interpreted this as:

> AI memory demand may peak earlier than expected

So the correction was a demand narrative shock, not an earnings collapse.

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2. Has the memory thesis changed?

The thesis has evolved, not collapsed.

Old thesis (2025): AI = unlimited HBM demand → memory supercycle

New thesis (2026): AI efficiency improves → but usage explodes → total memory demand still rises

This is similar to:

SSD became cheaper → people stored more data

Internet faster → people streamed more video

Compute cheaper → people trained bigger models

Efficiency often increases total demand, not reduces it.

So the real question: Does TurboQuant reduce total memory demand or increase AI adoption?

If adoption increases → memory bull continues.

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3. Technically speaking (important)

For SanDisk:

Huge uptrend still intact

Recent drop was correction to trend

Breakout above consolidation is bullish

Key levels:

Support: ~570

Resistance: ~650

Break 650 → new leg higher

For Micron:

Watch 320 support

Above 350 → momentum returns

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4. Memory Cycle Reality (Very Important)

Memory industry always moves in cycles:

Phase What happens

Oversupply Prices crash

Capex cut Supply tight

AI / demand boom Prices spike

Everyone overbuild Next crash

We are currently in: AI demand boom → supply tight → prices rising phase

Unless AI capex collapses, memory cycle is still up.

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5. My View (Big Picture)

I would summarise like this:

Factor Bullish / Bearish

AI data growth Bullish

HBM supply tight Bullish

TurboQuant efficiency Neutral

OpenAI order cut Short-term bearish

Memory pricing trend Bullish

Capex discipline Bullish

Conclusion:

> Memory bull market still intact, but volatility will be high and not straight up anymore.

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6. What I would watch now (Very Important)

If these happen → memory stocks go much higher:

1. HBM prices continue rising

2. Nvidia shipments increase

3. AI capex continues 2027

4. Data centre buildout continues

5. China AI buildout accelerates

If these happen → thesis broken:

1. HBM prices fall

2. Nvidia orders slow

3. AI capex cuts

4. Oversupply appears

5. Cloud companies reduce spending

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Final View

Base case scenario:

Memory stocks had a panic correction

Now in re-accumulation phase

Likely new highs later in 2026

But volatility will be very high

So this probably is not the end of the memory bull market, just the first major scare of the cycle.

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If you want my honest view: Memory may still be one of the strongest sectors into 2027.