Singapore banks – February loan and deposit growth stats

🏦The three Singapore banks have seen divergent share price performance this year-to-date

🏆OCBC has been the standout performer, surpassing SGD 100 billion in market capitalisation for the first time ever, following a 13.4% rally this year-to-date

✳✴Consequently, OCBC call warrant OAEW is one of the top warrant performers over the past 12 weeks with a 72.1% rally to $0.061 given OCBC’s 11% gain over the same period, while OCBC put warrant UVTW emerged as one of the period’s top loser with a 86.3% loss to $0.111

📉DBS and UOB have traded in similar patterns, with both stocks seeing sell pressure in early March on the back of result announcements

✍Macquarie Research (MQ) which has been overweight on OCBC since November 2025 continues to prefer the stock within the banking sector, reiterating why this is the case in their most recent research report on the back of the February loan and deposit growth stats

👀Read more for the full article containing excerpts of MQ’s report published on 31 March 2026 to find out why, and important disclaimers

Key points

Consumer loans expanded +0.5% MoM. Total loans rose 0.5% month-on-month (MoM) which is 5.4% higher year-on-year (YoY). Deposits were up +0.2% MoM (+4.8% YoY).

The system loan/deposit ratio increased +0.2ppt MoM to 67.7%, while the CASA ratio increased by +0.1ppt MoM to 49.6%.

MQ’s preference in the sector is OCBC (OP) > UOB (OP) > DBS (UP).

Observations from the data

Business loans rose by +0.4% MoM. The rise in business loans was almost entirely due to Financial Institutions +1.9% MoM (+6.6% YoY). General commerce loans decreased -1.9% MoM (+6.0% ), manufacturing loans fell -1.4% MoM (+0.7% YoY) and transport loans fell -1.4% MoM (+7.7% YoY). On a YoY basis, total business loans were up +4.1%.

Mortgage loans increased +0.5% MoM (+5.4% YoY). New private residential sales were 246 units in Feb-26, down -47.2% MoM (-84.6% YoY). No new projects were launched, but 15 new units were released from the Bukit Sembawang Estates’ previously launched landed housing project, Pollen Collection II. Credit-card loans decreased -1.3% MoM (+7.2% YoY).

Deposits increased +0.2% MoM (+4.8% YoY), demand deposits fell -0.1% MoM. Savings deposits increased +1.5% MoM, while fixed deposits fell by -0.2% MoM. The low-cost (CASA) deposit ratio stood at 49.6%, up +0.1ppt MoM. The banking sector loan-deposit rate rose +0.2ppt MoM to 67.7%.

MAS maintained the SGNEER slope at its recent January meeting, though flagged upside risks to both the CPI and growth relative to the base case. MAS raised its Core Inflation and CPI-All Items inflation for 2026 to 1.0–2.0%, from 0.5–1.5% at its prior Monetary Policy Statement. Rising energy prices and cost-push inflation further tilt the balance to a tightening of the slope; considering how monetary policy works in Singapore, this would entail stronger FX but lower short-end SGD rates (all else equal).

OCBC is MQ’s top sector pick

OCBC had the best 4Q25 result, and MQ thinks the shift on capital management provides visibility on a 60% payout being maintained this year.

While all three banks should benefit from wealth inflows, there are risks around lower deployment into investments amid "risk off". The more volatile environment also augurs higher general allowances vs the 4Q25 position; OCBC has a strong starting point on general allowances and non-performing asset cover

DBS: Underperform, 12-month target price of $48.67 based on a Price to Book stock methodology

OCBC: Outperform, 12-month target price of $23.82 based on a Gordon Growth Model stock methodology

UOB: Outperform, 12-month target price of $41.00 based on a Gordon Growth Model stock methodology

Note: Macquarie Research is independent from the Warrants business, what the Macquarie Warrants desks quote from Macquarie Research may not reflect the complete analysis of Macquarie Research on the relevant company over time.

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Macquarie has call and put warrants tracking all three banks, allowing investors to capitalise on the volatility of the bank shares.

The trending warrants are priced around $0.044 to $0.106 and will move approximately 6.5 to 10 times more than the bank shares, based on their effective gearing levels as of 9AM today.

Interested investors can use the Exposure Simulator tool to estimate the warrant price performance of any of the warrants based on your target exit levels in the stocks.

Trending DBS call $DBS MB eCW260929(KZAW.SI)$ : https://warrants.com.sg/tools/exposuresimulator/KZAW

Trending DBS put $DBS MB ePW260930(JFXW.SI)$ : https://warrants.com.sg/tools/exposuresimulator/JFXW

Trending OCBC call $OCBC Bk MB eCW260930(IGBW.SI)$ : https://warrants.com.sg/tools/exposuresimulator/IGBW

Trending OCBC put $OCBC Bk MB ePW260930(V8QW.SI)$ : https://warrants.com.sg/tools/exposuresimulator/V8QW

Trending UOB call $UOB MB eCW260730(HIQW.SI)$ : https://warrants.com.sg/tools/exposuresimulator/HIQW

Trending UOB put UCCW: https://warrants.com.sg/tools/exposuresimulator/UCCW