Hormuz Strait Closed Means Your Power Bill Jumps 20% Soon | 🦖EP1558

The Investing Iguana
04-20 13:18

Hormuz Strait Closed Means Your Power Bill Jumps 20% Soon | 🦖EP1558

The Hormuz re-closure is not a distant geopolitical headline — it is a direct assault on the fuel hedge mathematics that your SIA dividend depends on. SIA's hedge cover drops from 41% to 24% by late 2026, precisely when Brent risk premiums are projected to peak, and that 37% downward revision in FY2027 core net profit means the distribution arithmetic is already broken before the July utility shock lands.

For a mature SRS portfolio in a 5,000-point STI era, the question is never yield in isolation — it is yield minus the risk you are silently underwriting. With the 6-month T-Bill at 1.47% and my Forensic Floor anchored at 3.2%, any fuel-exposed transport equity needs to clear a credible 4.7% hurdle with gearing below 35% to justify the displacement of capital from absolute safety. Right now, the spread is narrowing faster than the consensus admits.

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/Sm8hEtSSPKM

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/hormuz-strait-closed-means-your-power

US-Iran Conflict | Hormuz Blocked Again, Can Trump Meeting Help Sustain Market Momentum?
Trump said he is willing to meet senior Iranian leaders if talks make a “breakthrough,” while a U.S. delegation including JD Vance was reported to be heading to Islamabad on April 20. At the same time, Reuters reported shipping through Hormuz was near a standstill, with only three vessel crossings in 12 hours, and broader markets opened under pressure as oil jumped. So which signal matters more now — diplomacy restarting, or the fact that the world’s key oil chokepoint is still barely moving? Is this 4% oil spike just headline panic, or the start of a deeper risk-off move for equities?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment
5