The market wants to believe th

The market wants to believe the worst is over. I am not convinced.

While momentum is holding, the Iran situation and Hormuz risk remain unresolved. Markets may be pricing in diplomacy, but the underlying backdrop is still fragile.

For me, oil is the key signal. Any sharp move will quickly flow through to inflation, rates and sentiment.

This is not a clean risk-on market. It may still move higher, but the upside feels conditional.

For now, I would watch oil, shipping activity and political signals closely.

This feels like a market supported more by hope than certainty.

US-Iran Conflict | Hormuz Blocked Again, Can Trump Meeting Help Sustain Market Momentum?

Trump said he is willing to meet senior Iranian leaders if talks make a “breakthrough,” while a U.S. delegation including JD Vance was reported to be heading to Islamabad on April 20. At the same time, Reuters reported shipping through Hormuz was near a standstill, with only three vessel crossings in 12 hours, and broader markets opened under pressure as oil jumped. So which signal matters more now — diplomacy restarting, or the fact that the world’s key oil chokepoint is still barely moving? Is this 4% oil spike just headline panic, or the start of a deeper risk-off move for equities?

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