Latest skepticism around US/Iran peace talks and de-escalation weighing on stocks, pushing oil higher again and earlier pushed index back above 20. Weakness comes amid more headline noise around the war (Iranian leadership uncertainty, latest Trump threats around Strait of Hormuz, reports of Iran deploying more mines in strati, Iran's attacks on regional shipping).
Market continues to mostly ignore headline chop, continues to focus on ultimate progress toward ceasefire. Some other areas of focus include more evidence of resilient macro backdrop (flash PMI beats), more challenging setup after latest rally back potential pension month-end selling (record $25B, according to GS), mixed takeaways around latest batch of earnings, optimism into Big Tech results next week (capex remains big story, though Wall Street view on whether it is positive or negative depends on a name-by-name basis), and latest software and private credit concerns
Looking ahead, Final University of Michigan report consumer sentiment and inflation expectations cap off the week on Friday. Next week's highlights include Conference Board consumer conference, Richmond Fed manufacturing, durable goods orders, housing starts, PCE, Chicago PMI and ISM manufacturing. In addition, April FOMC decision is on Wednesday.
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