This feels like a classic case of markets trying to price two completely different outcomes at once. On one hand, the Hormuz disruption is a real macro risk — if flows stay constrained, oil doesn’t just spike short term, it feeds directly into inflation expectations and puts pressure on equities. On the other hand, the willingness to reopen diplomacy suggests this could unwind just as quickly as it escalated.

Personally, I think the key signal isn’t the headlines, it’s whether shipping throughput actually improves over the next 24–72 hours. If vessels start moving again, this likely gets faded as a panic spike. But if the choke point remains restricted, the market probably hasn’t fully priced the second-order effects yet.

For now, it looks more like headline volatility than a confirmed risk-off trend — but that can change fast if fundamentals (oil flow) don’t stabilise.