Leadership in tech constantly shifts, usually once every decade. It’s important to recognize that today’s tech giants may not remain on top tomorrow. The Magnificent 7 feel unstoppable now — but so did IBM, Nokia, and Cisco in their heydays. Each era had its acronym: FANG, FAANG, and now the Magnificent 7. It changes because markets are always recalibrating who the real leaders are.

That’s why investing in tech isn’t about blindly buying today’s winners. It requires you to forecast who will actually benefit from the next shift — and avoid those working against it. That’s not easy. Even though some tech stocks have delivered massive gains, there’s a strong survivorship bias — for every success, many others fade into irrelevance.

Look at Alphabet. Despite growing revenue, its stock is down 3.4% over the past year, as investors worry about AI threatening Google Search. Adobe, another company seen as vulnerable to generative AI, plunged 35.8%.