nerdbull1669
04-27 10:20

We are planning to take advanatage of the bullish sentiment for $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ by doing a Bull Put spread on AMZN.

For an expiration date of May 1, 2026, Amazon (AMZN) presents an interesting scenario. With the stock recently trading around $264 and an earnings report scheduled for April 29, 2026, implied volatility (IV) for this specific weekly expiration is significantly elevated (roughly 63-65%).

A bull put spread (credit spread) allows you to capitalize on this high IV and the stock’s recent bullish momentum while defining your risk.

Strategy Setup

Current Stock Price: ~$264.00

Expiration Date: May 01, 2026 (4 days from now)

Outlook: Bullish to Neutral (Stock stays above your short strike)

Option 1: Conservative (High Probability)

This spread is set below the "Max Pain" level and historical support, providing a wider cushion for earnings volatility.

Sell (Short) Put: $245 strike

Buy (Long) Put: $240 strike

Net Credit: ~$1.15 (estimated based on current IV)

Max Profit: $115 per contract

Max Risk: $385 (Width of strikes $5.00 - Credit $1.15)

Breakeven: $243.85

Option 2: Aggressive (High Yield)

This spread is closer to the current price, offering a much higher credit but requiring the stock to hold its recent gains through the earnings report.

Sell (Short) Put: $255 strike

Buy (Long) Put: $250 strike

Net Credit: ~$1.95 (estimated)

Max Profit: $195 per contract

Max Risk: $305

Breakeven: $253.05

Key Considerations for this Trade

Earnings Impact: Since Amazon reports on April 29, this trade is essentially a "binary event" play. The high credit you receive is a direct result of the uncertainty surrounding the earnings announcement.

Volatility Crush: If the earnings report passes without a massive sell-off, the Implied Volatility will likely "crush" (drop rapidly). This is beneficial for credit spreads, as the value of the puts you sold will decrease quickly, allowing you to close the trade for a profit even if the stock doesn't move much.

Risk Management: In a bull put spread, your maximum loss occurs if AMZN closes below your long put (e.g., $240) on May 1. Given the recent run from $210 to $264, a post-earnings "cool off" is a legitimate risk.

Note: Options pricing fluctuates rapidly, especially during earnings week. Ensure you check the live bid/ask spread before execution to ensure the risk-to-reward ratio meets your requirements.

Amazon Surges Ahead of Earnings: Can AWS Reclaim AI Narrative Leadership?
$AMZN$ rose +3.49% to near $264 ahead of Q1 2026 results, with markets betting AWS is beginning to convert AI infrastructure investment into accelerating returns and closing the gap on Azure. Key metrics: whether AWS growth can return above 30% and whether the advertising segment can sustain high growth as a second pillar of margin expansion. Recent strength also reflects growing market conviction in Amazon's proprietary chip strategy and its deepening partnership with Anthropic. Do you think Amazon can overtake its rivals in the AI cloud race?
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