NVIDIA can hold the narrative, but the bar is now extremely high.

Three things must happen for $300 this year to be credible:

1. Big Tech capex beats again

If Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta all raise AI infrastructure guidance, NVDA’s backlog story strengthens materially.

2. Margins stay elite

At $5T+, the market is paying for continued scarcity economics, not normal semiconductor margins.

3. Competition remains edge pressure, not core pressure

Advanced Micro Devices, Google TPU and custom silicon can nibble at the edges, but hyperscaler demand is still expanding fast enough for NVDA to dominate the core.

My view:

Base case: $240 to $270

Bull case: $300+ if capex guides sharply higher and Blackwell supply ramps cleanly.

Bear case: sell-the-news if hyperscaler spend merely meets lofty expectations.

At this stage, NVDA is less a chip stock, more the market’s benchmark for AI monetisation itself.