Lanceljx
04-29 17:55

Yes, but I would separate bounce from durable recovery.


A dovish Federal Reserve signal would likely trigger an immediate relief rally in rate-sensitive tech, especially long-duration names like NVIDIA, Tesla and software multiples. Lower discount-rate expectations mechanically support valuations.


The catch is supply-side inflation. If price pressures are being driven by energy, tariffs, labour tightness, or supply bottlenecks, the Federal Reserve has limited room to ease aggressively. That caps how far valuation expansion can run.


What matters most is Powell’s tone:

• Dovish pivot → sharp short squeeze / risk-on rally

• Data-dependent neutral → brief bounce, fade risk

• Sticky inflation concern → semis and high-PE AI names may see another leg lower


My base case: tradable rebound, not full reset to new highs yet, unless earnings re-accelerate and AI capex starts showing clearer ROI.

S&P 500 Concludes Best Month! Chase New High or Take Profits?
April's final session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at all-time highs (+1%), $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.89%. Full month: S&P 500 +10.4%, Nasdaq +14.8% — the strongest single-month return since the post-COVID rebound in 2020. Based on historical data, if multiple new highs are reached in April, the subsequent market performance is usually relatively strong. Will the bull run continue into may? Do you chase the new high or wait for a pullback? Which sector do you think catches up?
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Comments

  • Adz5150
    05-01 05:36
    Adz5150
    I’m with you on that. Relief rallies are easy and durable, upside probably needs softer inflation, resilient labour data, and earnings to keep confirming.
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