My year-end base case for SNDK is US$1,300 to US$1,450, bull case US$1,600+ if LTAs and prepayments are confirmed.
Why: • Seagate Technology’s EPS jump from $17.50 to $32 suggests Street models may still be underestimating storage cycle earnings power.
• If SanDisk’s $48 cycle EPS is real, upside revisions toward $55 to $60 are possible on richer enterprise SSD mix and firmer pricing.
• The key is LTA prepayments. If hyperscalers prepay to lock NAND supply, that signals structural tightness, boosts visibility, and supports a re-rating from $1,100 thinking toward $1,500+.
Bottom line:
Beat on earnings = good.
LTA prepayments = narrative shift.
That is the true catalyst.
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