Markets look euphoric, but upside is becoming more selective.
Simply “buy and hold anything” worked in the liquidity wave. From here, quality and entry price matter more. NVIDIA at $5T, Advanced Micro Devices at $680B, and Arm Holdings surging on AI CPU repricing suggest plenty of optimism is already priced in.
My take:
• Chase now? Not aggressively. Better to scale in on pullbacks than buy vertical spikes.
• Goldman vs hedge funds? Follow both. Goldman's targets reflect macro upside, hedge fund selling reflects positioning risk.
• AI upside left? Still positive, but gains may rotate from GPUs into memory, networking, power infrastructure, industrial automation, and software monetisation.
• If Iran cools + Fed cuts: biggest beneficiaries may be small caps, REITs, banks, cyclicals, emerging markets, and beaten-down consumer names, as capital broadens beyond mega-cap tech.
Base case: bull trend intact, but narrower margin for error.
Holding good businesses still works, but blind holding is no longer enough.
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