The Case for Momentum (Why it -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

The Case for Momentum (Why it might keep going)

• Earnings Inflection: We aren't just trading on hype anymore. Q1 2026 earnings are exceeding forecasts by 20.7%—the strongest upside surprise since 2021. The "AI infrastructure" trade (NVDA, AMD, MU) is actually delivering the cash flow to justify these prices.

• Lack of "Exhaustion": Technically, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the "overbought" zone (above 70), we haven't seen a bearish divergence (where price makes a new high but RSI doesn't). This suggests the trend is still "healthy" for now.

• Broadening Leadership: It’s no longer just the "Magnificent Seven." In May, we’ve seen money rotate into the "Power Stack" (utilities like CEG and industrials like VRT), which provides a more stable floor for the index.

2. The Case for Caution (The "Chase" Risk)

• Verticality: The Nasdaq is up 22% since March 30th alone. Moving that far, that fast, usually leads to a "retest" of the breakout zone.

• Key Pivot Levels: Watch the 26,980 level as the primary medium-term support. If we see a dip, that is where the "smart money" will likely look to re-enter.

• Macro Headwinds: Oil remains above $90 and Middle East tensions are still simmering. While the market is ignoring this for now, any sudden escalation could trigger a fast 5-7% "air pocket" drop.

Powell Exit and Market Plunge: Trim or Buy the Dip?

U.S. equities sold off sharply Monday, with tech, AI-photonics, and memory chip sectors hit by broad-based liquidation. Hedge funds and asset managers recorded simultaneous net selling, with macro short positions reaching a two-month high. Powell officially stepped down May 15, with Wharsh sworn in as Fed Chair — equity markets have historically faced headwinds during Fed leadership transitions. Have you been waiting for this pullback, and where do you stand on adding exposure?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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The Case for Caution (The \"Chase\" Risk) • Verticality: The Nasdaq is up 22% since March 30th alone. Moving that far, that fast, usually leads to a \"retest\" of the breakout zone. • Key Pivot Levels: Watch the 26,980 level as the primary medium-term support. If we see a dip, that is where the \"smart money\" will likely look to re-enter. • Macro Headwinds: Oil remains above $90 and Middle East tensions are still simmering. 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