$Albemarle(ALB)$ It has been a while... The proof is there... The USD is going down, the dedollarisation has been happening, as I wrote in a number of articles a few years ago. The only thing keeping the USD up is ironically the war US and Donald Trump wrecked on Iran.
True, US is still the centre of all actions. The current melt-up around all things AI and beyond techs might feel contradictory to the idea of dedollarisation. The downtrend in USD in general as illustrated in two of many other charts below seems to suggest something else.
First, it's AI, next is the supporting tech that becomes the bottleneck. What follows, which is already happening together with the US war with Iran is the amplification of raw materials shortage. Commodities are no longer the same. Just like the cheap memory chips and Si wafers just a couple of years ago. Who would have expected every day techs are now in high demand? Companies like $Micron Technology(MU)$ , $SK Hynix, Inc.(HXSCL)$ were just producing cheap memory chips, until AI demands come knocking and changed everything!
I see the same for critical minerals, such as copper, aluminium and lithium. Not to mention rare earth minerals and even silver. US has not been bothered to mine and processed these minerals, looking down on them as low tech art. However, the recent Trump's started tariff and physical wars change all these concepts of commodity. Demands and supplies are not simply that. The critical supply chain and resources flow issues comes to the fore. Countries interest alignment have never been more obvious and real!
Countries with minerals and countries without. Countries processing minerals and countries consuming them. That cannot be clearer. It will come a time when we would perhaps remember the word, "commodity" as a historical term. They will no longer be common and govern by what is in the ground.
Back to my topic on USD. The diminishing importance of USD is real, AI, high tech or otherwise. The trend is clear. It would take a big effort to reverse it. With the increasing US government fiscal debt load and lost in confidence in Trump's government to support the world order, central bankers around are slowly moving away from US Treasury and into gold. Increasing trade deals led by China are completed in RMB. For tech, or even AI, the epicentre, no matter how small, is moving...
Melt-up is here. For those in the game, enjoy it. There should still be a while to go, but it's fragile. Watch out below! There is nothing there! It's obvious. With the quick run-up in prices, there is no time for support formation. Actually SpaceX might be a good sign... of one big bubble built...
Enjoy the show!
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