Managing to snag a clean intraday trade on ASML yesterday was a great way to start the week, especially catching the movement on the US ticker between the day's low and the high of 1540 strike call options seeing significant action as the stock continues to trade near its 52-week highs. It is the kind of execution that really makes the day. While the intraday flip was satisfying, the real weight of the week is shifting toward Beijing as President Trump arrives for the high-stakes summit with Xi Jinping starting May 14.
The anticipation surrounding this meeting is palpable because the proposed "MATCH" Act and China's new "blocking statutes" are casting a shadow over ASML’s revenue outlook. With U.S. lawmakers pushing to restrict not just new DUV equipment sales but also the servicing of machines already in Chinese facilities, ASML is essentially caught in the crossfire of this AI arms race. China accounted for roughly 33% of their sales last year, and while management has guided that to drop to around 20% for 2026, a breakdown in these talks could see that number shrink even further. Everyone is watching to see if this summit leads to a "tech truce" or if the "kill switch" on digital services and hardware becomes a permanent fixture of the trade landscape.
I am keeping a close eye on any headlines regarding a potential relaxation of export controls for 7nm or 14nm tools, as those will be the first indicators of how the chip discussion is progressing. If the leaders can find a middle ground on technology sovereignty without complete decoupling, it could provide the clear runway ASML needs to hit its recently raised 2026 revenue target of up to $47 billion. For now, I am happy to have banked the gains from yesterday’s volatility while the market prepares for whatever comes off that table in Beijing.
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