Lanceljx
05-16 13:01
I would not treat Trump’s portfolio as a signal. With thousands of trades, it reflects high turnover and mandate-driven execution, not conviction.

The hardware tilt is directionally right but late. AI bottlenecks still sit in chips and networking, benefiting names like NVIDIA and Broadcom. However, much of that upside is already priced in.

On Morgan Stanley SPX 8300 vs Shiller P/E ~42: earnings growth is real, but expectations are stretched.

View:

Not a full bubble yet

Early excess forming

Upside remains but fragile

Focus on selectivity, not broad chasing.

Trump Leaves, Q1 Portfolio Drops! What Trading Clues to Follow?
Trump departed Beijing today, wrapping up his China visit. Outcomes: energy and agriculture purchasing framework, no AI chip export relaxation announced. But the bigger story today is the Office of Government Ethics disclosure: 3,642 trades in Q1 alone, estimated at $220M-$750M total, roughly 58 trades per day. How do you read Trump's portfolio? Trump sold software, bought NVDA/SNDK/AVGO — do you follow the same rotation, or is the portfolio disclosure itself the signal to trade against?
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