Trump’s “rotation” is not a clean signal. Disclosures are lagged, partial, and likely managed by advisors, so treating them as a trading edge is unreliable.
The hardware tilt does reflect reality: AI bottlenecks sit in GPUs, memory, power, and networking. That is where pricing power is strongest today. Software monetisation is lagging as enterprises still test ROI.
But following that blindly now is late-cycle behaviour. Much of hardware is already priced for near-perfect demand.
On SPX 8300 vs Shiller P/E ~42: the EPS growth story is real, but expectations are stretched. At these valuations, markets need sustained high growth with minimal disruption.
Base case: not an immediate bubble pop, but conditions are forming. Upside remains, downside risk is asymmetric. Selectivity matters more than direction.
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