I’d stay constructive but less-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

I’d stay constructive but less aggressive. Core positions intact, but trimming AI names into strength and holding more cash than usual.

For NVDA, expectations are extremely high. It’s no longer about beating, but how far they beat and whether guidance extends the AI capex runway.

Base case:

Beat + inline → likely sell-the-news

Beat + strong raise → short rally, then digestion

Exceptional + clear Blackwell upside → squeeze higher

I wouldn’t chase pre-earnings. Risk-reward is asymmetric.

On the Fed, weaker forward guidance means each FOMC becomes a volatility event. That argues for smaller sizing, staggered entries, and keeping dry powder into summer.

Not full “Sell in May”, but definitely not max risk either.

30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High: Time to Buy Tech Stocks?

Nasdaq fell 0.84% today as 30-year U.S. Treasury yields surged to a near 19-year high, placing systemic pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Market focus now turns to NVDA's after-hours earnings tonight. The tech sector, last week's top-performing segment, has become the primary target for institutional deleveraging, with hedge fund short interest hitting a two-month high. If Treasury yields remain elevated and NVDA's guidance disappoints, where does this AI rally find room to breathe?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Risk-reward is asymmetric.</p>\n<p>On the Fed, weaker forward guidance means each FOMC becomes a volatility event. That argues for smaller sizing, staggered entries, and keeping dry powder into summer.</p>\n<p>Not full “Sell in May”, but definitely not max risk either.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I’d stay constructive but less aggressive. Core positions intact, but trimming AI names into strength and holding more cash than usual.\n<p></p>\n<p>For NVDA, expectations are extremely high. It’s no longer about beating, but how far they beat and whether guidance extends the AI capex runway.</p>\n<p>Base case:</p>\n<p>Beat + inline → likely sell-the-news</p>\n<p>Beat + strong raise → short rally, then digestion</p>\n<p>Exceptional + clear Blackwell upside → squeeze higher<br></p>\n<p>I wouldn’t chase pre-earnings. Risk-reward is asymmetric.</p>\n<p>On the Fed, weaker forward guidance means each FOMC becomes a volatility event. That argues for smaller sizing, staggered entries, and keeping dry powder into summer.</p>\n<p>Not full “Sell in May”, but definitely not max risk either.</p></body></html>","text":"I’d stay constructive but less aggressive. Core positions intact, but trimming AI names into strength and holding more cash than usual. For NVDA, expectations are extremely high. It’s no longer about beating, but how far they beat and whether guidance extends the AI capex runway. Base case: Beat + inline → likely sell-the-news Beat + strong raise → short rally, then digestion Exceptional + clear Blackwell upside → squeeze higher I wouldn’t chase pre-earnings. Risk-reward is asymmetric. On the Fed, weaker forward guidance means each FOMC becomes a volatility event. That argues for smaller sizing, staggered entries, and keeping dry powder into summer. 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