In many cases, these super large IPOs happen just around market highs.
However, Fundstrat argues that this is not a "top signal," but rather a real stock supply shock from large IPOs—when the lock period expires (usually six months later), a large number of tradable shares flooded into the market. SpaceX lockup period is expected to expire between December 15 and 27.
At a size of 2.7% of the market value of SpaceX, this supply pressure will be unprecedented. With Anthropic and OpenAI also preparing for IPOs, the concentrated burst of IPO supplies could become a structural force that neutralizes market valuations in the second half of the year.
Wait until the end of lock up period
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